What is the economic calendar in forex trading?

The economic calendar is a schedule of government-released economic data and central bank events that affect currency prices. Major events include CPI (inflation), NFP (employment), GDP (economic growth), and central bank interest rate decisions. Each event has a forecast, previous value, and impact rating. The difference between actual and forecast determines market direction.

How to read the forex economic calendar?

Each row shows: Time (ET), Country flag, Event name, Impact level (High/Medium/Low), Forecast (market expectation), and Previous (last month's value). When the Actual release beats the Forecast, the currency typically strengthens. When it misses, the currency weakens. High impact events like NFP and CPI move markets 50-120+ pips.

What is the most important economic indicator for forex?

Interest rate decisions by central banks are the most important, as they directly determine the yield and attractiveness of a currency. For the US dollar, NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) and CPI (Consumer Price Index) are the most market-moving monthly releases. The FOMC rate decision is the most important scheduled event each quarter.

How do you trade economic news in forex?

The 3-phase approach: 1) Pre-event: reduce position sizes, widen stops, or exit. 2) The spike (0-5 min after release): do not trade, let the initial algorithm-driven spike settle. 3) The follow-through (15 min - 3 hours): enter in the direction of the trend after confirmation. Compare Actual vs Forecast to determine direction.

What does CPI mean in forex trading?

CPI (Consumer Price Index) measures inflation — the rate at which consumer prices rise. When CPI is higher than expected, the central bank is more likely to raise interest rates, which strengthens the currency. When CPI is lower than expected, rate cuts become more likely, weakening the currency. CPI is the #2 most market-moving event after central bank decisions.

How does NFP affect currency pairs?

NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) measures US employment excluding farms. A reading above 200K with upward revisions is bullish for USD — it signals a strong economy and keeps the Fed hiking. A reading below 100K with downward revisions is bearish — it signals weakness and rate cuts ahead. EURUSD, GBPUSD, and USDJPY typically move 50-120 pips on NFP day.

What is the difference between forecast and previous on the economic calendar?

Forecast is what economists expect the current release will show. Previous is what the data showed last month or quarter. The market reacts to the difference between Actual and Forecast, not between Actual and Previous. However, previous data revisions (correcting past numbers) can amplify or reverse the market reaction.

Which economic events move the EURUSD the most?

For EURUSD, the most impactful events are: ECB Interest Rate Decision (100-300 pips), US NFP (50-120 pips), US CPI (30-80 pips), FOMC rate decision (50-150 pips), and Eurozone GDP (20-50 pips). ECB President Lagarde speeches and Fed Chair Powell speeches also cause significant moves. German data (IFO, ZEW, PMI) matters more for EUR than aggregate Eurozone data.

Can you automate news trading in MT5?

Yes, using MQL5's WebRequest function to fetch the economic calendar from nfs.faireconomy.media. The EA can parse the XML feed, classify events by impact level, convert ET to GMT timezone, and block trades or reduce position sizes during high-impact events. Full source code is available in the AlgoSpecial blog guides.

What is the best time to trade forex news?

The best opportunities are during high-impact releases at 8:30 AM ET (US data: NFP, CPI, GDP, Retail Sales), 10:00 AM ET (Fed speeches, consumer confidence), 2:00 PM ET (FOMC minutes), and European morning 2:00-8:00 AM ET (European data, ECB). Avoid trading 30 minutes before and 5 minutes after major releases due to slippage risk.

Live Forex Economic Calendar

Real-time economic data from Forex Factory • Deep AI-powered explanations for every event • Updated hourly

Updated: Jun 25, 2026 5:01am 89 events this week

Live Calendar How to Trade News Event Encyclopedia

Time (ET)	Flag	Country	Event	Impact	Forecast	Previous
Monday, June 22, 2026
1:00am	🇨🇳	CNY	1-y Loan Prime Rate	Low	3.00%	3.00%
What It Measures This release measures 1-y loan prime rate for CNY. This economic event provides data about the reporting country's economic conditions. The specific impact depends on whether the actual figure beats or misses market expectations relative to the forecast. Why It Matters to Forex Market expectations are priced in before the release. A significant deviation from the forecast causes price adjustment as traders reassess their positions. Higher than expected readings generally support the currency; lower readings weaken it. Bullish Scenario A low impact event. Actual figure significantly exceeds forecast. This suggests the economy is performing better than expected, increasing the probability of tighter monetary policy. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Actual figure significantly misses forecast. This suggests economic weakness, increasing expectations for looser monetary policy. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Estimated: 5-15 pips Affected Currency Pairs Pairs containing the reporting country's currency. Intermarket Connections The deviation from forecast is more important than the absolute number. Revisions to previous data can amplify or reverse the initial market reaction. Multiple events on the same day compound their effects — overlapping high-impact events create outsized volatility. View on Forex Factory
1:00am	🇨🇳	CNY	5-y Loan Prime Rate	Low	3.50%	3.50%
What It Measures This release measures 5-y loan prime rate for CNY. This economic event provides data about the reporting country's economic conditions. The specific impact depends on whether the actual figure beats or misses market expectations relative to the forecast. Why It Matters to Forex Market expectations are priced in before the release. A significant deviation from the forecast causes price adjustment as traders reassess their positions. Higher than expected readings generally support the currency; lower readings weaken it. Bullish Scenario A low impact event. Actual figure significantly exceeds forecast. This suggests the economy is performing better than expected, increasing the probability of tighter monetary policy. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Actual figure significantly misses forecast. This suggests economic weakness, increasing expectations for looser monetary policy. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Estimated: 5-15 pips Affected Currency Pairs Pairs containing the reporting country's currency. Intermarket Connections The deviation from forecast is more important than the absolute number. Revisions to previous data can amplify or reverse the initial market reaction. Multiple events on the same day compound their effects — overlapping high-impact events create outsized volatility. View on Forex Factory
3:00am	🇳🇿	NZD	Credit Card Spending y/y	Low	-	2.9%
What It Measures This release measures credit card spending y/y for NZD. This economic event provides data about the reporting country's economic conditions. The specific impact depends on whether the actual figure beats or misses market expectations relative to the forecast. Why It Matters to Forex Market expectations are priced in before the release. A significant deviation from the forecast causes price adjustment as traders reassess their positions. Higher than expected readings generally support the currency; lower readings weaken it. Bullish Scenario A low impact event. Actual figure significantly exceeds forecast. This suggests the economy is performing better than expected, increasing the probability of tighter monetary policy. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Actual figure significantly misses forecast. This suggests economic weakness, increasing expectations for looser monetary policy. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Estimated: 5-15 pips Affected Currency Pairs Pairs containing the reporting country's currency. Intermarket Connections The deviation from forecast is more important than the absolute number. Revisions to previous data can amplify or reverse the initial market reaction. Multiple events on the same day compound their effects — overlapping high-impact events create outsized volatility. View on Forex Factory
9:06am	🇨🇳	CNY	Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y	Low	-	-10.3%
What It Measures This release measures foreign direct investment ytd/y for CNY. This economic event provides data about the reporting country's economic conditions. The specific impact depends on whether the actual figure beats or misses market expectations relative to the forecast. Why It Matters to Forex Market expectations are priced in before the release. A significant deviation from the forecast causes price adjustment as traders reassess their positions. Higher than expected readings generally support the currency; lower readings weaken it. Bullish Scenario A low impact event. Actual figure significantly exceeds forecast. This suggests the economy is performing better than expected, increasing the probability of tighter monetary policy. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Actual figure significantly misses forecast. This suggests economic weakness, increasing expectations for looser monetary policy. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Estimated: 5-15 pips Affected Currency Pairs Pairs containing the reporting country's currency. Intermarket Connections The deviation from forecast is more important than the absolute number. Revisions to previous data can amplify or reverse the initial market reaction. Multiple events on the same day compound their effects — overlapping high-impact events create outsized volatility. View on Forex Factory
11:00am	🇪🇺	EUR	German Buba President Nagel Speaks	Low	-	-
What It Measures Governors, FOMC members, MPC members, or Board Governors give public speeches on the economy and monetary policy outlook. These are unscheduled and can happen anytime. Why It Matters to Forex Speeches give clues about the next rate decision before the official meeting. A hawkish comment from a typically dovish member is more impactful than a hawkish comment from a known hawk. Markets parse every word for shifts in tone. Bullish Scenario Comments about "inflation persistence", "need for further tightening", "economy running hot" => hawkish => currency strengthens. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Comments about "risks to growth", "data dependency", "patience" => dovish => currency weakens. "We are close to the peak" is strongly dovish. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Dovish hawkish shift: 20-60 pips • Major shift: 50-100 pips Affected Currency Pairs USD speeches move all USD pairs. EUR speeches move EUR pairs. GBP speeches move GBP pairs. Cross-country impact: Fed speeches affect global risk sentiment. Intermarket Connections The FOMC voting member status matters — voters for the current year have more impact on market expectations. Chairs/Presidents (Powell, Lagarde, Bailey) have the most impact — their words carry the full weight of the institution. Hawk/Dove rankings are published by banks — a shift in a member's ranking is more important than the absolute content. View on Forex Factory
12:30pm	🇨🇦	CAD	CPI m/m	High	0.7%	0.4%
What It Measures CPI measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services over time. It is the most widely used gauge of inflation and directly influences central bank monetary policy decisions. Why It Matters to Forex Inflation is the #1 driver of currency value. Central banks raise interest rates to fight high inflation (attracting foreign capital and strengthening the currency) and cut rates during low inflation (weakening the currency). CPI surprises are among the most market-moving events alongside NFP and central bank decisions. Bullish Scenario A higher-than-expected CPI print signals rising inflation pressure. This forces the central bank to maintain or accelerate interest rate hikes, making the currency more attractive to yield-seeking investors. The currency rallies as rate hike expectations are priced in. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario A lower-than-expected CPI print signals cooling inflation or deflation risk. Markets price in rate cuts or a pause in the tightening cycle. The currency sells off as yield expectations drop. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement High impact: 30-80 pips (major pairs) • Medium impact: 15-40 pips (cross pairs) • Minor pairs: 10-25 pips Affected Currency Pairs Event country + all major pairs containing that currency. USD-CPI moves EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, USDCHF. AUD-CPI moves AUDUSD, EURAUD, GBPAUD, AUDJPY. Intermarket Connections PPI (Producer Price Index) leads CPI by 2-3 months — rising PPI eventually passes through to consumers. CPI directly influences Interest Rate Decisions at the next central bank meeting. Retail Sales data shows whether consumers can sustain spending under inflation pressure. Employment data affects wage-driven inflation — rising wages feed into services CPI. Import Prices affect CPI — a weak currency makes imports expensive, pushing CPI up. Historical Context Central banks target 2% inflation (PCE in the US, CPI in most others). CPI above 5% triggers aggressive tightening. CPI below 1% risks deflation and forces emergency easing. The 2021-2023 inflation spike saw CPI peak at 9.1% in the US, triggering the fastest rate hiking cycle in 40 years. View on Forex Factory
12:30pm	🇨🇦	CAD	Median CPI y/y	High	2.1%	2.1%
What It Measures CPI measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services over time. It is the most widely used gauge of inflation and directly influences central bank monetary policy decisions. Why It Matters to Forex Inflation is the #1 driver of currency value. Central banks raise interest rates to fight high inflation (attracting foreign capital and strengthening the currency) and cut rates during low inflation (weakening the currency). CPI surprises are among the most market-moving events alongside NFP and central bank decisions. Bullish Scenario A higher-than-expected CPI print signals rising inflation pressure. This forces the central bank to maintain or accelerate interest rate hikes, making the currency more attractive to yield-seeking investors. The currency rallies as rate hike expectations are priced in. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario A lower-than-expected CPI print signals cooling inflation or deflation risk. Markets price in rate cuts or a pause in the tightening cycle. The currency sells off as yield expectations drop. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement High impact: 30-80 pips (major pairs) • Medium impact: 15-40 pips (cross pairs) • Minor pairs: 10-25 pips Affected Currency Pairs Event country + all major pairs containing that currency. USD-CPI moves EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, USDCHF. AUD-CPI moves AUDUSD, EURAUD, GBPAUD, AUDJPY. Intermarket Connections PPI (Producer Price Index) leads CPI by 2-3 months — rising PPI eventually passes through to consumers. CPI directly influences Interest Rate Decisions at the next central bank meeting. Retail Sales data shows whether consumers can sustain spending under inflation pressure. Employment data affects wage-driven inflation — rising wages feed into services CPI. Import Prices affect CPI — a weak currency makes imports expensive, pushing CPI up. Historical Context Central banks target 2% inflation (PCE in the US, CPI in most others). CPI above 5% triggers aggressive tightening. CPI below 1% risks deflation and forces emergency easing. The 2021-2023 inflation spike saw CPI peak at 9.1% in the US, triggering the fastest rate hiking cycle in 40 years. View on Forex Factory
12:30pm	🇨🇦	CAD	Trimmed CPI y/y	High	2.0%	2.0%
What It Measures CPI measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services over time. It is the most widely used gauge of inflation and directly influences central bank monetary policy decisions. Why It Matters to Forex Inflation is the #1 driver of currency value. Central banks raise interest rates to fight high inflation (attracting foreign capital and strengthening the currency) and cut rates during low inflation (weakening the currency). CPI surprises are among the most market-moving events alongside NFP and central bank decisions. Bullish Scenario A higher-than-expected CPI print signals rising inflation pressure. This forces the central bank to maintain or accelerate interest rate hikes, making the currency more attractive to yield-seeking investors. The currency rallies as rate hike expectations are priced in. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario A lower-than-expected CPI print signals cooling inflation or deflation risk. Markets price in rate cuts or a pause in the tightening cycle. The currency sells off as yield expectations drop. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement High impact: 30-80 pips (major pairs) • Medium impact: 15-40 pips (cross pairs) • Minor pairs: 10-25 pips Affected Currency Pairs Event country + all major pairs containing that currency. USD-CPI moves EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, USDCHF. AUD-CPI moves AUDUSD, EURAUD, GBPAUD, AUDJPY. Intermarket Connections PPI (Producer Price Index) leads CPI by 2-3 months — rising PPI eventually passes through to consumers. CPI directly influences Interest Rate Decisions at the next central bank meeting. Retail Sales data shows whether consumers can sustain spending under inflation pressure. Employment data affects wage-driven inflation — rising wages feed into services CPI. Import Prices affect CPI — a weak currency makes imports expensive, pushing CPI up. Historical Context Central banks target 2% inflation (PCE in the US, CPI in most others). CPI above 5% triggers aggressive tightening. CPI below 1% risks deflation and forces emergency easing. The 2021-2023 inflation spike saw CPI peak at 9.1% in the US, triggering the fastest rate hiking cycle in 40 years. View on Forex Factory
12:30pm	🇨🇦	CAD	Common CPI y/y	Medium	2.5%	2.5%
What It Measures CPI measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services over time. It is the most widely used gauge of inflation and directly influences central bank monetary policy decisions. Why It Matters to Forex Inflation is the #1 driver of currency value. Central banks raise interest rates to fight high inflation (attracting foreign capital and strengthening the currency) and cut rates during low inflation (weakening the currency). CPI surprises are among the most market-moving events alongside NFP and central bank decisions. Bullish Scenario A higher-than-expected CPI print signals rising inflation pressure. This forces the central bank to maintain or accelerate interest rate hikes, making the currency more attractive to yield-seeking investors. The currency rallies as rate hike expectations are priced in. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario A lower-than-expected CPI print signals cooling inflation or deflation risk. Markets price in rate cuts or a pause in the tightening cycle. The currency sells off as yield expectations drop. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement High impact: 30-80 pips (major pairs) • Medium impact: 15-40 pips (cross pairs) • Minor pairs: 10-25 pips Affected Currency Pairs Event country + all major pairs containing that currency. USD-CPI moves EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, USDCHF. AUD-CPI moves AUDUSD, EURAUD, GBPAUD, AUDJPY. Intermarket Connections PPI (Producer Price Index) leads CPI by 2-3 months — rising PPI eventually passes through to consumers. CPI directly influences Interest Rate Decisions at the next central bank meeting. Retail Sales data shows whether consumers can sustain spending under inflation pressure. Employment data affects wage-driven inflation — rising wages feed into services CPI. Import Prices affect CPI — a weak currency makes imports expensive, pushing CPI up. Historical Context Central banks target 2% inflation (PCE in the US, CPI in most others). CPI above 5% triggers aggressive tightening. CPI below 1% risks deflation and forces emergency easing. The 2021-2023 inflation spike saw CPI peak at 9.1% in the US, triggering the fastest rate hiking cycle in 40 years. View on Forex Factory
12:30pm	🇨🇦	CAD	Core CPI m/m	Low	-	0.2%
What It Measures Core CPI removes volatile food and energy prices to reveal the underlying inflation trend. Central banks focus on core CPI as a more reliable indicator of persistent inflation. Why It Matters to Forex Food and energy prices fluctuate wildly due to weather, geopolitics, and seasonal factors. Core CPI strips this noise away and shows the true inflation trajectory. A high core CPI reading forces central bank action regardless of what headline CPI says. Bullish Scenario Core CPI rising => persistent inflation => central bank must keep rates high => currency strengthens. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Core CPI falling => inflation under control => central bank can cut rates => currency weakens. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement High impact: 25-60 pips Affected Currency Pairs Same as CPI — affects all pairs with the reporting currency. Intermarket Connections Core CPI is the Federal Reserve preferred measure (PCE is their official target, but CPI trends correlate). Services inflation (a component of Core CPI) is the stickiest and most watched by central banks. Rent and shelter costs (30% of CPI) lag house prices by 12-18 months. View on Forex Factory
1:00pm	🇪🇺	EUR	ECB President Lagarde Speaks	Medium	-	-
What It Measures Governors, FOMC members, MPC members, or Board Governors give public speeches on the economy and monetary policy outlook. These are unscheduled and can happen anytime. Why It Matters to Forex Speeches give clues about the next rate decision before the official meeting. A hawkish comment from a typically dovish member is more impactful than a hawkish comment from a known hawk. Markets parse every word for shifts in tone. Bullish Scenario Comments about "inflation persistence", "need for further tightening", "economy running hot" => hawkish => currency strengthens. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Comments about "risks to growth", "data dependency", "patience" => dovish => currency weakens. "We are close to the peak" is strongly dovish. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Dovish hawkish shift: 20-60 pips • Major shift: 50-100 pips Affected Currency Pairs USD speeches move all USD pairs. EUR speeches move EUR pairs. GBP speeches move GBP pairs. Cross-country impact: Fed speeches affect global risk sentiment. Intermarket Connections The FOMC voting member status matters — voters for the current year have more impact on market expectations. Chairs/Presidents (Powell, Lagarde, Bailey) have the most impact — their words carry the full weight of the institution. Hawk/Dove rankings are published by banks — a shift in a member's ranking is more important than the absolute content. View on Forex Factory
1:00pm	🇺🇸	USD	FOMC Member Waller Speaks	Low	-	-
What It Measures Governors, FOMC members, MPC members, or Board Governors give public speeches on the economy and monetary policy outlook. These are unscheduled and can happen anytime. Why It Matters to Forex Speeches give clues about the next rate decision before the official meeting. A hawkish comment from a typically dovish member is more impactful than a hawkish comment from a known hawk. Markets parse every word for shifts in tone. Bullish Scenario Comments about "inflation persistence", "need for further tightening", "economy running hot" => hawkish => currency strengthens. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Comments about "risks to growth", "data dependency", "patience" => dovish => currency weakens. "We are close to the peak" is strongly dovish. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Dovish hawkish shift: 20-60 pips • Major shift: 50-100 pips Affected Currency Pairs USD speeches move all USD pairs. EUR speeches move EUR pairs. GBP speeches move GBP pairs. Cross-country impact: Fed speeches affect global risk sentiment. Intermarket Connections The FOMC voting member status matters — voters for the current year have more impact on market expectations. Chairs/Presidents (Powell, Lagarde, Bailey) have the most impact — their words carry the full weight of the institution. Hawk/Dove rankings are published by banks — a shift in a member's ranking is more important than the absolute content. View on Forex Factory
2:04pm	🇪🇺	EUR	Consumer Confidence	Low	-18	-19
What It Measures Monthly surveys of consumer attitudes about current and future economic conditions. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (US) and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (US) are the most widely followed. Similar surveys exist for most developed economies. Why It Matters to Forex Consumer confidence is a LEADING indicator — confident consumers spend more, drive GDP, and support inflation. Plunging confidence signals a recession 6-12 months in advance. The "Expectations" sub-index (future outlook) is the most predictive component. Bullish Scenario Confidence rising sharply + Expectations sub-index above 80 => consumers optimistic about future => spending will follow => currency strengthens. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Confidence falling sharply + Expectations sub-index below 60 => consumers pessimistic => spending pullback ahead => currency weakens. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Major surprise: 15-35 pips Affected Currency Pairs Reporting country currency. US confidence measures affect all USD pairs. Intermarket Connections The Expectations sub-index is more important than Current Conditions — it predicts future spending. Consumer Confidence (Conference Board) focuses on labor market perceptions — "Jobs Hard to Get" is the key sub-index. UoM Consumer Sentiment includes Inflation Expectations — the most important component for the Fed. Consumer confidence tends to rise with stock markets (wealth effect) and fall with gas prices. Ifo Business Climate (Germany) is the manufacturing equivalent — business leaders' expectations predict production. View on Forex Factory
3:25pm	🇪🇺	EUR	ECB President Lagarde Speaks	Medium	-	-
What It Measures Governors, FOMC members, MPC members, or Board Governors give public speeches on the economy and monetary policy outlook. These are unscheduled and can happen anytime. Why It Matters to Forex Speeches give clues about the next rate decision before the official meeting. A hawkish comment from a typically dovish member is more impactful than a hawkish comment from a known hawk. Markets parse every word for shifts in tone. Bullish Scenario Comments about "inflation persistence", "need for further tightening", "economy running hot" => hawkish => currency strengthens. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Comments about "risks to growth", "data dependency", "patience" => dovish => currency weakens. "We are close to the peak" is strongly dovish. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Dovish hawkish shift: 20-60 pips • Major shift: 50-100 pips Affected Currency Pairs USD speeches move all USD pairs. EUR speeches move EUR pairs. GBP speeches move GBP pairs. Cross-country impact: Fed speeches affect global risk sentiment. Intermarket Connections The FOMC voting member status matters — voters for the current year have more impact on market expectations. Chairs/Presidents (Powell, Lagarde, Bailey) have the most impact — their words carry the full weight of the institution. Hawk/Dove rankings are published by banks — a shift in a member's ranking is more important than the absolute content. View on Forex Factory
9:30pm	🇺🇸	USD	FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks	Low	-	-
What It Measures Governors, FOMC members, MPC members, or Board Governors give public speeches on the economy and monetary policy outlook. These are unscheduled and can happen anytime. Why It Matters to Forex Speeches give clues about the next rate decision before the official meeting. A hawkish comment from a typically dovish member is more impactful than a hawkish comment from a known hawk. Markets parse every word for shifts in tone. Bullish Scenario Comments about "inflation persistence", "need for further tightening", "economy running hot" => hawkish => currency strengthens. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Comments about "risks to growth", "data dependency", "patience" => dovish => currency weakens. "We are close to the peak" is strongly dovish. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Dovish hawkish shift: 20-60 pips • Major shift: 50-100 pips Affected Currency Pairs USD speeches move all USD pairs. EUR speeches move EUR pairs. GBP speeches move GBP pairs. Cross-country impact: Fed speeches affect global risk sentiment. Intermarket Connections The FOMC voting member status matters — voters for the current year have more impact on market expectations. Chairs/Presidents (Powell, Lagarde, Bailey) have the most impact — their words carry the full weight of the institution. Hawk/Dove rankings are published by banks — a shift in a member's ranking is more important than the absolute content. View on Forex Factory
11:00pm	🇦🇺	AUD	Flash Manufacturing PMI	Low	-	50.2
What It Measures PMI surveys purchasing managers at hundreds of companies across manufacturing and services sectors. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 indicates contraction. It is the most timely economic indicator — released on the first business day of each month. Why It Matters to Forex PMI is the EARLIEST monthly economic indicator — it comes out before retail sales, employment, or GDP data for the same period. A PMI above 50 signals expansion and supports the currency. A PMI below 50 signals contraction and weakens it. The services PMI is now more important than manufacturing for most developed economies. Bullish Scenario PMI rising above 50 and beating expectations => broad economic expansion => currency strengthens. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario PMI falling below 50 (contraction) or significantly missing expectations => recession signal => currency weakens. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Flash release: 15-35 pips • Final revision: 5-15 pips Affected Currency Pairs Reporting country currency. Flash Manufacturing/Services PMIs from Germany, France, EU, UK, and US all affect their respective pairs. Intermarket Connections Manufacturing PMI components: New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories. New Orders is the most forward-looking. Services PMI is more important than Manufacturing for the US and UK (services are 75-80% of their economies). Composite PMI combines Manufacturing and Services into one number — the best overall snapshot. Flash PMI (preliminary, ~25th of month) is more impactful than Final PMI because it is the first read. Supplier Delivery Times component of Manufacturing PMI can indicate supply chain pressure — longer delivery times suggest demand outstrips supply. PMI Employment sub-index correlates with NFP/employment data release 1-2 weeks later. View on Forex Factory
11:00pm	🇦🇺	AUD	Flash Services PMI	Low	-	47.7
What It Measures PMI surveys purchasing managers at hundreds of companies across manufacturing and services sectors. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 indicates contraction. It is the most timely economic indicator — released on the first business day of each month. Why It Matters to Forex PMI is the EARLIEST monthly economic indicator — it comes out before retail sales, employment, or GDP data for the same period. A PMI above 50 signals expansion and supports the currency. A PMI below 50 signals contraction and weakens it. The services PMI is now more important than manufacturing for most developed economies. Bullish Scenario PMI rising above 50 and beating expectations => broad economic expansion => currency strengthens. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario PMI falling below 50 (contraction) or significantly missing expectations => recession signal => currency weakens. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Flash release: 15-35 pips • Final revision: 5-15 pips Affected Currency Pairs Reporting country currency. Flash Manufacturing/Services PMIs from Germany, France, EU, UK, and US all affect their respective pairs. Intermarket Connections Manufacturing PMI components: New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories. New Orders is the most forward-looking. Services PMI is more important than Manufacturing for the US and UK (services are 75-80% of their economies). Composite PMI combines Manufacturing and Services into one number — the best overall snapshot. Flash PMI (preliminary, ~25th of month) is more impactful than Final PMI because it is the first read. Supplier Delivery Times component of Manufacturing PMI can indicate supply chain pressure — longer delivery times suggest demand outstrips supply. PMI Employment sub-index correlates with NFP/employment data release 1-2 weeks later. View on Forex Factory
Tuesday, June 23, 2026
12:30am	🇯🇵	JPY	Flash Manufacturing PMI	Low	54.5	54.5
What It Measures PMI surveys purchasing managers at hundreds of companies across manufacturing and services sectors. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 indicates contraction. It is the most timely economic indicator — released on the first business day of each month. Why It Matters to Forex PMI is the EARLIEST monthly economic indicator — it comes out before retail sales, employment, or GDP data for the same period. A PMI above 50 signals expansion and supports the currency. A PMI below 50 signals contraction and weakens it. The services PMI is now more important than manufacturing for most developed economies. Bullish Scenario PMI rising above 50 and beating expectations => broad economic expansion => currency strengthens. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario PMI falling below 50 (contraction) or significantly missing expectations => recession signal => currency weakens. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Flash release: 15-35 pips • Final revision: 5-15 pips Affected Currency Pairs Reporting country currency. Flash Manufacturing/Services PMIs from Germany, France, EU, UK, and US all affect their respective pairs. Intermarket Connections Manufacturing PMI components: New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories. New Orders is the most forward-looking. Services PMI is more important than Manufacturing for the US and UK (services are 75-80% of their economies). Composite PMI combines Manufacturing and Services into one number — the best overall snapshot. Flash PMI (preliminary, ~25th of month) is more impactful than Final PMI because it is the first read. Supplier Delivery Times component of Manufacturing PMI can indicate supply chain pressure — longer delivery times suggest demand outstrips supply. PMI Employment sub-index correlates with NFP/employment data release 1-2 weeks later. View on Forex Factory
5:00am	🇯🇵	JPY	BOJ Core CPI y/y	Low	1.5%	1.4%
What It Measures Core CPI removes volatile food and energy prices to reveal the underlying inflation trend. Central banks focus on core CPI as a more reliable indicator of persistent inflation. Why It Matters to Forex Food and energy prices fluctuate wildly due to weather, geopolitics, and seasonal factors. Core CPI strips this noise away and shows the true inflation trajectory. A high core CPI reading forces central bank action regardless of what headline CPI says. Bullish Scenario Core CPI rising => persistent inflation => central bank must keep rates high => currency strengthens. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Core CPI falling => inflation under control => central bank can cut rates => currency weakens. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement High impact: 25-60 pips Affected Currency Pairs Same as CPI — affects all pairs with the reporting currency. Intermarket Connections Core CPI is the Federal Reserve preferred measure (PCE is their official target, but CPI trends correlate). Services inflation (a component of Core CPI) is the stickiest and most watched by central banks. Rent and shelter costs (30% of CPI) lag house prices by 12-18 months. View on Forex Factory
7:15am	🇪🇺	EUR	French Flash Manufacturing PMI	Medium	50.2	48.9
What It Measures PMI surveys purchasing managers at hundreds of companies across manufacturing and services sectors. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 indicates contraction. It is the most timely economic indicator — released on the first business day of each month. Why It Matters to Forex PMI is the EARLIEST monthly economic indicator — it comes out before retail sales, employment, or GDP data for the same period. A PMI above 50 signals expansion and supports the currency. A PMI below 50 signals contraction and weakens it. The services PMI is now more important than manufacturing for most developed economies. Bullish Scenario PMI rising above 50 and beating expectations => broad economic expansion => currency strengthens. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario PMI falling below 50 (contraction) or significantly missing expectations => recession signal => currency weakens. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Flash release: 15-35 pips • Final revision: 5-15 pips Affected Currency Pairs Reporting country currency. Flash Manufacturing/Services PMIs from Germany, France, EU, UK, and US all affect their respective pairs. Intermarket Connections Manufacturing PMI components: New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories. New Orders is the most forward-looking. Services PMI is more important than Manufacturing for the US and UK (services are 75-80% of their economies). Composite PMI combines Manufacturing and Services into one number — the best overall snapshot. Flash PMI (preliminary, ~25th of month) is more impactful than Final PMI because it is the first read. Supplier Delivery Times component of Manufacturing PMI can indicate supply chain pressure — longer delivery times suggest demand outstrips supply. PMI Employment sub-index correlates with NFP/employment data release 1-2 weeks later. View on Forex Factory
7:15am	🇪🇺	EUR	French Flash Services PMI	Medium	45.9	42.9
What It Measures PMI surveys purchasing managers at hundreds of companies across manufacturing and services sectors. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 indicates contraction. It is the most timely economic indicator — released on the first business day of each month. Why It Matters to Forex PMI is the EARLIEST monthly economic indicator — it comes out before retail sales, employment, or GDP data for the same period. A PMI above 50 signals expansion and supports the currency. A PMI below 50 signals contraction and weakens it. The services PMI is now more important than manufacturing for most developed economies. Bullish Scenario PMI rising above 50 and beating expectations => broad economic expansion => currency strengthens. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario PMI falling below 50 (contraction) or significantly missing expectations => recession signal => currency weakens. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Flash release: 15-35 pips • Final revision: 5-15 pips Affected Currency Pairs Reporting country currency. Flash Manufacturing/Services PMIs from Germany, France, EU, UK, and US all affect their respective pairs. Intermarket Connections Manufacturing PMI components: New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories. New Orders is the most forward-looking. Services PMI is more important than Manufacturing for the US and UK (services are 75-80% of their economies). Composite PMI combines Manufacturing and Services into one number — the best overall snapshot. Flash PMI (preliminary, ~25th of month) is more impactful than Final PMI because it is the first read. Supplier Delivery Times component of Manufacturing PMI can indicate supply chain pressure — longer delivery times suggest demand outstrips supply. PMI Employment sub-index correlates with NFP/employment data release 1-2 weeks later. View on Forex Factory
7:30am	🇪🇺	EUR	German Flash Manufacturing PMI	Medium	50.3	49.9
What It Measures PMI surveys purchasing managers at hundreds of companies across manufacturing and services sectors. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 indicates contraction. It is the most timely economic indicator — released on the first business day of each month. Why It Matters to Forex PMI is the EARLIEST monthly economic indicator — it comes out before retail sales, employment, or GDP data for the same period. A PMI above 50 signals expansion and supports the currency. A PMI below 50 signals contraction and weakens it. The services PMI is now more important than manufacturing for most developed economies. Bullish Scenario PMI rising above 50 and beating expectations => broad economic expansion => currency strengthens. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario PMI falling below 50 (contraction) or significantly missing expectations => recession signal => currency weakens. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Flash release: 15-35 pips • Final revision: 5-15 pips Affected Currency Pairs Reporting country currency. Flash Manufacturing/Services PMIs from Germany, France, EU, UK, and US all affect their respective pairs. Intermarket Connections Manufacturing PMI components: New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories. New Orders is the most forward-looking. Services PMI is more important than Manufacturing for the US and UK (services are 75-80% of their economies). Composite PMI combines Manufacturing and Services into one number — the best overall snapshot. Flash PMI (preliminary, ~25th of month) is more impactful than Final PMI because it is the first read. Supplier Delivery Times component of Manufacturing PMI can indicate supply chain pressure — longer delivery times suggest demand outstrips supply. PMI Employment sub-index correlates with NFP/employment data release 1-2 weeks later. View on Forex Factory
7:30am	🇪🇺	EUR	German Flash Services PMI	Medium	49.0	47.8
What It Measures PMI surveys purchasing managers at hundreds of companies across manufacturing and services sectors. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 indicates contraction. It is the most timely economic indicator — released on the first business day of each month. Why It Matters to Forex PMI is the EARLIEST monthly economic indicator — it comes out before retail sales, employment, or GDP data for the same period. A PMI above 50 signals expansion and supports the currency. A PMI below 50 signals contraction and weakens it. The services PMI is now more important than manufacturing for most developed economies. Bullish Scenario PMI rising above 50 and beating expectations => broad economic expansion => currency strengthens. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario PMI falling below 50 (contraction) or significantly missing expectations => recession signal => currency weakens. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Flash release: 15-35 pips • Final revision: 5-15 pips Affected Currency Pairs Reporting country currency. Flash Manufacturing/Services PMIs from Germany, France, EU, UK, and US all affect their respective pairs. Intermarket Connections Manufacturing PMI components: New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories. New Orders is the most forward-looking. Services PMI is more important than Manufacturing for the US and UK (services are 75-80% of their economies). Composite PMI combines Manufacturing and Services into one number — the best overall snapshot. Flash PMI (preliminary, ~25th of month) is more impactful than Final PMI because it is the first read. Supplier Delivery Times component of Manufacturing PMI can indicate supply chain pressure — longer delivery times suggest demand outstrips supply. PMI Employment sub-index correlates with NFP/employment data release 1-2 weeks later. View on Forex Factory
8:00am	🇪🇺	EUR	Flash Manufacturing PMI	Low	51.6	51.4
What It Measures PMI surveys purchasing managers at hundreds of companies across manufacturing and services sectors. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 indicates contraction. It is the most timely economic indicator — released on the first business day of each month. Why It Matters to Forex PMI is the EARLIEST monthly economic indicator — it comes out before retail sales, employment, or GDP data for the same period. A PMI above 50 signals expansion and supports the currency. A PMI below 50 signals contraction and weakens it. The services PMI is now more important than manufacturing for most developed economies. Bullish Scenario PMI rising above 50 and beating expectations => broad economic expansion => currency strengthens. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario PMI falling below 50 (contraction) or significantly missing expectations => recession signal => currency weakens. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Flash release: 15-35 pips • Final revision: 5-15 pips Affected Currency Pairs Reporting country currency. Flash Manufacturing/Services PMIs from Germany, France, EU, UK, and US all affect their respective pairs. Intermarket Connections Manufacturing PMI components: New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories. New Orders is the most forward-looking. Services PMI is more important than Manufacturing for the US and UK (services are 75-80% of their economies). Composite PMI combines Manufacturing and Services into one number — the best overall snapshot. Flash PMI (preliminary, ~25th of month) is more impactful than Final PMI because it is the first read. Supplier Delivery Times component of Manufacturing PMI can indicate supply chain pressure — longer delivery times suggest demand outstrips supply. PMI Employment sub-index correlates with NFP/employment data release 1-2 weeks later. View on Forex Factory
8:00am	🇪🇺	EUR	Flash Services PMI	Low	48.6	46.4
What It Measures PMI surveys purchasing managers at hundreds of companies across manufacturing and services sectors. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 indicates contraction. It is the most timely economic indicator — released on the first business day of each month. Why It Matters to Forex PMI is the EARLIEST monthly economic indicator — it comes out before retail sales, employment, or GDP data for the same period. A PMI above 50 signals expansion and supports the currency. A PMI below 50 signals contraction and weakens it. The services PMI is now more important than manufacturing for most developed economies. Bullish Scenario PMI rising above 50 and beating expectations => broad economic expansion => currency strengthens. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario PMI falling below 50 (contraction) or significantly missing expectations => recession signal => currency weakens. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Flash release: 15-35 pips • Final revision: 5-15 pips Affected Currency Pairs Reporting country currency. Flash Manufacturing/Services PMIs from Germany, France, EU, UK, and US all affect their respective pairs. Intermarket Connections Manufacturing PMI components: New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories. New Orders is the most forward-looking. Services PMI is more important than Manufacturing for the US and UK (services are 75-80% of their economies). Composite PMI combines Manufacturing and Services into one number — the best overall snapshot. Flash PMI (preliminary, ~25th of month) is more impactful than Final PMI because it is the first read. Supplier Delivery Times component of Manufacturing PMI can indicate supply chain pressure — longer delivery times suggest demand outstrips supply. PMI Employment sub-index correlates with NFP/employment data release 1-2 weeks later. View on Forex Factory
8:30am	🇬🇧	GBP	Flash Manufacturing PMI	Medium	53.5	53.7
What It Measures PMI surveys purchasing managers at hundreds of companies across manufacturing and services sectors. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 indicates contraction. It is the most timely economic indicator — released on the first business day of each month. Why It Matters to Forex PMI is the EARLIEST monthly economic indicator — it comes out before retail sales, employment, or GDP data for the same period. A PMI above 50 signals expansion and supports the currency. A PMI below 50 signals contraction and weakens it. The services PMI is now more important than manufacturing for most developed economies. Bullish Scenario PMI rising above 50 and beating expectations => broad economic expansion => currency strengthens. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario PMI falling below 50 (contraction) or significantly missing expectations => recession signal => currency weakens. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Flash release: 15-35 pips • Final revision: 5-15 pips Affected Currency Pairs Reporting country currency. Flash Manufacturing/Services PMIs from Germany, France, EU, UK, and US all affect their respective pairs. Intermarket Connections Manufacturing PMI components: New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories. New Orders is the most forward-looking. Services PMI is more important than Manufacturing for the US and UK (services are 75-80% of their economies). Composite PMI combines Manufacturing and Services into one number — the best overall snapshot. Flash PMI (preliminary, ~25th of month) is more impactful than Final PMI because it is the first read. Supplier Delivery Times component of Manufacturing PMI can indicate supply chain pressure — longer delivery times suggest demand outstrips supply. PMI Employment sub-index correlates with NFP/employment data release 1-2 weeks later. View on Forex Factory
8:30am	🇬🇧	GBP	Flash Services PMI	Medium	50.1	47.9
What It Measures PMI surveys purchasing managers at hundreds of companies across manufacturing and services sectors. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 indicates contraction. It is the most timely economic indicator — released on the first business day of each month. Why It Matters to Forex PMI is the EARLIEST monthly economic indicator — it comes out before retail sales, employment, or GDP data for the same period. A PMI above 50 signals expansion and supports the currency. A PMI below 50 signals contraction and weakens it. The services PMI is now more important than manufacturing for most developed economies. Bullish Scenario PMI rising above 50 and beating expectations => broad economic expansion => currency strengthens. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario PMI falling below 50 (contraction) or significantly missing expectations => recession signal => currency weakens. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Flash release: 15-35 pips • Final revision: 5-15 pips Affected Currency Pairs Reporting country currency. Flash Manufacturing/Services PMIs from Germany, France, EU, UK, and US all affect their respective pairs. Intermarket Connections Manufacturing PMI components: New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories. New Orders is the most forward-looking. Services PMI is more important than Manufacturing for the US and UK (services are 75-80% of their economies). Composite PMI combines Manufacturing and Services into one number — the best overall snapshot. Flash PMI (preliminary, ~25th of month) is more impactful than Final PMI because it is the first read. Supplier Delivery Times component of Manufacturing PMI can indicate supply chain pressure — longer delivery times suggest demand outstrips supply. PMI Employment sub-index correlates with NFP/employment data release 1-2 weeks later. View on Forex Factory
8:55am	🇬🇧	GBP	MPC Member Breeden Speaks	Low	-	-
What It Measures Governors, FOMC members, MPC members, or Board Governors give public speeches on the economy and monetary policy outlook. These are unscheduled and can happen anytime. Why It Matters to Forex Speeches give clues about the next rate decision before the official meeting. A hawkish comment from a typically dovish member is more impactful than a hawkish comment from a known hawk. Markets parse every word for shifts in tone. Bullish Scenario Comments about "inflation persistence", "need for further tightening", "economy running hot" => hawkish => currency strengthens. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Comments about "risks to growth", "data dependency", "patience" => dovish => currency weakens. "We are close to the peak" is strongly dovish. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Dovish hawkish shift: 20-60 pips • Major shift: 50-100 pips Affected Currency Pairs USD speeches move all USD pairs. EUR speeches move EUR pairs. GBP speeches move GBP pairs. Cross-country impact: Fed speeches affect global risk sentiment. Intermarket Connections The FOMC voting member status matters — voters for the current year have more impact on market expectations. Chairs/Presidents (Powell, Lagarde, Bailey) have the most impact — their words carry the full weight of the institution. Hawk/Dove rankings are published by banks — a shift in a member's ranking is more important than the absolute content. View on Forex Factory
10:00am	🇬🇧	GBP	CBI Industrial Order Expectations	Low	-33	-41
What It Measures This release measures cbi industrial order expectations for GBP. This economic event provides data about the reporting country's economic conditions. The specific impact depends on whether the actual figure beats or misses market expectations relative to the forecast. Why It Matters to Forex Market expectations are priced in before the release. A significant deviation from the forecast causes price adjustment as traders reassess their positions. Higher than expected readings generally support the currency; lower readings weaken it. Bullish Scenario A low impact event. Actual figure significantly exceeds forecast. This suggests the economy is performing better than expected, increasing the probability of tighter monetary policy. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Actual figure significantly misses forecast. This suggests economic weakness, increasing expectations for looser monetary policy. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Estimated: 5-15 pips Affected Currency Pairs Pairs containing the reporting country's currency. Intermarket Connections The deviation from forecast is more important than the absolute number. Revisions to previous data can amplify or reverse the initial market reaction. Multiple events on the same day compound their effects — overlapping high-impact events create outsized volatility. View on Forex Factory
12:15pm	🇺🇸	USD	ADP Weekly Employment Change	Low	-	25.5K
What It Measures This release measures adp weekly employment change for USD. This economic event provides data about the reporting country's economic conditions. The specific impact depends on whether the actual figure beats or misses market expectations relative to the forecast. Why It Matters to Forex Market expectations are priced in before the release. A significant deviation from the forecast causes price adjustment as traders reassess their positions. Higher than expected readings generally support the currency; lower readings weaken it. Bullish Scenario A low impact event. Actual figure significantly exceeds forecast. This suggests the economy is performing better than expected, increasing the probability of tighter monetary policy. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Actual figure significantly misses forecast. This suggests economic weakness, increasing expectations for looser monetary policy. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Estimated: 5-15 pips Affected Currency Pairs Pairs containing the reporting country's currency. Intermarket Connections The deviation from forecast is more important than the absolute number. Revisions to previous data can amplify or reverse the initial market reaction. Multiple events on the same day compound their effects — overlapping high-impact events create outsized volatility. View on Forex Factory
1:15pm	🇬🇧	GBP	MPC Member Taylor Speaks	Low	-	-
What It Measures Governors, FOMC members, MPC members, or Board Governors give public speeches on the economy and monetary policy outlook. These are unscheduled and can happen anytime. Why It Matters to Forex Speeches give clues about the next rate decision before the official meeting. A hawkish comment from a typically dovish member is more impactful than a hawkish comment from a known hawk. Markets parse every word for shifts in tone. Bullish Scenario Comments about "inflation persistence", "need for further tightening", "economy running hot" => hawkish => currency strengthens. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Comments about "risks to growth", "data dependency", "patience" => dovish => currency weakens. "We are close to the peak" is strongly dovish. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Dovish hawkish shift: 20-60 pips • Major shift: 50-100 pips Affected Currency Pairs USD speeches move all USD pairs. EUR speeches move EUR pairs. GBP speeches move GBP pairs. Cross-country impact: Fed speeches affect global risk sentiment. Intermarket Connections The FOMC voting member status matters — voters for the current year have more impact on market expectations. Chairs/Presidents (Powell, Lagarde, Bailey) have the most impact — their words carry the full weight of the institution. Hawk/Dove rankings are published by banks — a shift in a member's ranking is more important than the absolute content. View on Forex Factory
1:25pm	🇨🇦	CAD	BOC Gov Macklem Speaks	Medium	-	-
What It Measures Governors, FOMC members, MPC members, or Board Governors give public speeches on the economy and monetary policy outlook. These are unscheduled and can happen anytime. Why It Matters to Forex Speeches give clues about the next rate decision before the official meeting. A hawkish comment from a typically dovish member is more impactful than a hawkish comment from a known hawk. Markets parse every word for shifts in tone. Bullish Scenario Comments about "inflation persistence", "need for further tightening", "economy running hot" => hawkish => currency strengthens. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Comments about "risks to growth", "data dependency", "patience" => dovish => currency weakens. "We are close to the peak" is strongly dovish. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Dovish hawkish shift: 20-60 pips • Major shift: 50-100 pips Affected Currency Pairs USD speeches move all USD pairs. EUR speeches move EUR pairs. GBP speeches move GBP pairs. Cross-country impact: Fed speeches affect global risk sentiment. Intermarket Connections The FOMC voting member status matters — voters for the current year have more impact on market expectations. Chairs/Presidents (Powell, Lagarde, Bailey) have the most impact — their words carry the full weight of the institution. Hawk/Dove rankings are published by banks — a shift in a member's ranking is more important than the absolute content. View on Forex Factory
1:45pm	🇺🇸	USD	Flash Manufacturing PMI	Medium	54.6	55.3
What It Measures PMI surveys purchasing managers at hundreds of companies across manufacturing and services sectors. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 indicates contraction. It is the most timely economic indicator — released on the first business day of each month. Why It Matters to Forex PMI is the EARLIEST monthly economic indicator — it comes out before retail sales, employment, or GDP data for the same period. A PMI above 50 signals expansion and supports the currency. A PMI below 50 signals contraction and weakens it. The services PMI is now more important than manufacturing for most developed economies. Bullish Scenario PMI rising above 50 and beating expectations => broad economic expansion => currency strengthens. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario PMI falling below 50 (contraction) or significantly missing expectations => recession signal => currency weakens. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Flash release: 15-35 pips • Final revision: 5-15 pips Affected Currency Pairs Reporting country currency. Flash Manufacturing/Services PMIs from Germany, France, EU, UK, and US all affect their respective pairs. Intermarket Connections Manufacturing PMI components: New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories. New Orders is the most forward-looking. Services PMI is more important than Manufacturing for the US and UK (services are 75-80% of their economies). Composite PMI combines Manufacturing and Services into one number — the best overall snapshot. Flash PMI (preliminary, ~25th of month) is more impactful than Final PMI because it is the first read. Supplier Delivery Times component of Manufacturing PMI can indicate supply chain pressure — longer delivery times suggest demand outstrips supply. PMI Employment sub-index correlates with NFP/employment data release 1-2 weeks later. View on Forex Factory
1:45pm	🇺🇸	USD	Flash Services PMI	Medium	51.1	50.9
What It Measures PMI surveys purchasing managers at hundreds of companies across manufacturing and services sectors. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 indicates contraction. It is the most timely economic indicator — released on the first business day of each month. Why It Matters to Forex PMI is the EARLIEST monthly economic indicator — it comes out before retail sales, employment, or GDP data for the same period. A PMI above 50 signals expansion and supports the currency. A PMI below 50 signals contraction and weakens it. The services PMI is now more important than manufacturing for most developed economies. Bullish Scenario PMI rising above 50 and beating expectations => broad economic expansion => currency strengthens. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario PMI falling below 50 (contraction) or significantly missing expectations => recession signal => currency weakens. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Flash release: 15-35 pips • Final revision: 5-15 pips Affected Currency Pairs Reporting country currency. Flash Manufacturing/Services PMIs from Germany, France, EU, UK, and US all affect their respective pairs. Intermarket Connections Manufacturing PMI components: New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories. New Orders is the most forward-looking. Services PMI is more important than Manufacturing for the US and UK (services are 75-80% of their economies). Composite PMI combines Manufacturing and Services into one number — the best overall snapshot. Flash PMI (preliminary, ~25th of month) is more impactful than Final PMI because it is the first read. Supplier Delivery Times component of Manufacturing PMI can indicate supply chain pressure — longer delivery times suggest demand outstrips supply. PMI Employment sub-index correlates with NFP/employment data release 1-2 weeks later. View on Forex Factory
2:00pm	🇺🇸	USD	Richmond Manufacturing Index	Low	8	13
What It Measures This release measures richmond manufacturing index for USD. This economic event provides data about the reporting country's economic conditions. The specific impact depends on whether the actual figure beats or misses market expectations relative to the forecast. Why It Matters to Forex Market expectations are priced in before the release. A significant deviation from the forecast causes price adjustment as traders reassess their positions. Higher than expected readings generally support the currency; lower readings weaken it. Bullish Scenario A low impact event. Actual figure significantly exceeds forecast. This suggests the economy is performing better than expected, increasing the probability of tighter monetary policy. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Actual figure significantly misses forecast. This suggests economic weakness, increasing expectations for looser monetary policy. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Estimated: 5-15 pips Affected Currency Pairs Pairs containing the reporting country's currency. Intermarket Connections The deviation from forecast is more important than the absolute number. Revisions to previous data can amplify or reverse the initial market reaction. Multiple events on the same day compound their effects — overlapping high-impact events create outsized volatility. View on Forex Factory
5:30pm	🇬🇧	GBP	MPC Member Dhingra Speaks	Low	-	-
What It Measures Governors, FOMC members, MPC members, or Board Governors give public speeches on the economy and monetary policy outlook. These are unscheduled and can happen anytime. Why It Matters to Forex Speeches give clues about the next rate decision before the official meeting. A hawkish comment from a typically dovish member is more impactful than a hawkish comment from a known hawk. Markets parse every word for shifts in tone. Bullish Scenario Comments about "inflation persistence", "need for further tightening", "economy running hot" => hawkish => currency strengthens. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Comments about "risks to growth", "data dependency", "patience" => dovish => currency weakens. "We are close to the peak" is strongly dovish. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Dovish hawkish shift: 20-60 pips • Major shift: 50-100 pips Affected Currency Pairs USD speeches move all USD pairs. EUR speeches move EUR pairs. GBP speeches move GBP pairs. Cross-country impact: Fed speeches affect global risk sentiment. Intermarket Connections The FOMC voting member status matters — voters for the current year have more impact on market expectations. Chairs/Presidents (Powell, Lagarde, Bailey) have the most impact — their words carry the full weight of the institution. Hawk/Dove rankings are published by banks — a shift in a member's ranking is more important than the absolute content. View on Forex Factory
6:05pm	🇺🇸	USD	President Trump Speaks	Medium	-	-
What It Measures Governors, FOMC members, MPC members, or Board Governors give public speeches on the economy and monetary policy outlook. These are unscheduled and can happen anytime. Why It Matters to Forex Speeches give clues about the next rate decision before the official meeting. A hawkish comment from a typically dovish member is more impactful than a hawkish comment from a known hawk. Markets parse every word for shifts in tone. Bullish Scenario Comments about "inflation persistence", "need for further tightening", "economy running hot" => hawkish => currency strengthens. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Comments about "risks to growth", "data dependency", "patience" => dovish => currency weakens. "We are close to the peak" is strongly dovish. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Dovish hawkish shift: 20-60 pips • Major shift: 50-100 pips Affected Currency Pairs USD speeches move all USD pairs. EUR speeches move EUR pairs. GBP speeches move GBP pairs. Cross-country impact: Fed speeches affect global risk sentiment. Intermarket Connections The FOMC voting member status matters — voters for the current year have more impact on market expectations. Chairs/Presidents (Powell, Lagarde, Bailey) have the most impact — their words carry the full weight of the institution. Hawk/Dove rankings are published by banks — a shift in a member's ranking is more important than the absolute content. View on Forex Factory
8:30pm	🇺🇸	USD	API Weekly Statistical Bulletin	Low	-	-
What It Measures This release measures api weekly statistical bulletin for USD. This economic event provides data about the reporting country's economic conditions. The specific impact depends on whether the actual figure beats or misses market expectations relative to the forecast. Why It Matters to Forex Market expectations are priced in before the release. A significant deviation from the forecast causes price adjustment as traders reassess their positions. Higher than expected readings generally support the currency; lower readings weaken it. Bullish Scenario A low impact event. Actual figure significantly exceeds forecast. This suggests the economy is performing better than expected, increasing the probability of tighter monetary policy. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Actual figure significantly misses forecast. This suggests economic weakness, increasing expectations for looser monetary policy. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Estimated: 5-15 pips Affected Currency Pairs Pairs containing the reporting country's currency. Intermarket Connections The deviation from forecast is more important than the absolute number. Revisions to previous data can amplify or reverse the initial market reaction. Multiple events on the same day compound their effects — overlapping high-impact events create outsized volatility. View on Forex Factory
11:50pm	🇯🇵	JPY	BOJ Summary of Opinions	Low	-	-
What It Measures This release measures boj summary of opinions for JPY. This economic event provides data about the reporting country's economic conditions. The specific impact depends on whether the actual figure beats or misses market expectations relative to the forecast. Why It Matters to Forex Market expectations are priced in before the release. A significant deviation from the forecast causes price adjustment as traders reassess their positions. Higher than expected readings generally support the currency; lower readings weaken it. Bullish Scenario A low impact event. Actual figure significantly exceeds forecast. This suggests the economy is performing better than expected, increasing the probability of tighter monetary policy. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Actual figure significantly misses forecast. This suggests economic weakness, increasing expectations for looser monetary policy. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Estimated: 5-15 pips Affected Currency Pairs Pairs containing the reporting country's currency. Intermarket Connections The deviation from forecast is more important than the absolute number. Revisions to previous data can amplify or reverse the initial market reaction. Multiple events on the same day compound their effects — overlapping high-impact events create outsized volatility. View on Forex Factory
11:50pm	🇯🇵	JPY	SPPI y/y	Low	3.3%	3.0%
What It Measures This release measures sppi y/y for JPY. This economic event provides data about the reporting country's economic conditions. The specific impact depends on whether the actual figure beats or misses market expectations relative to the forecast. Why It Matters to Forex Market expectations are priced in before the release. A significant deviation from the forecast causes price adjustment as traders reassess their positions. Higher than expected readings generally support the currency; lower readings weaken it. Bullish Scenario A low impact event. Actual figure significantly exceeds forecast. This suggests the economy is performing better than expected, increasing the probability of tighter monetary policy. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Actual figure significantly misses forecast. This suggests economic weakness, increasing expectations for looser monetary policy. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Estimated: 5-15 pips Affected Currency Pairs Pairs containing the reporting country's currency. Intermarket Connections The deviation from forecast is more important than the absolute number. Revisions to previous data can amplify or reverse the initial market reaction. Multiple events on the same day compound their effects — overlapping high-impact events create outsized volatility. View on Forex Factory
Wednesday, June 24, 2026
1:30am	🇦🇺	AUD	CPI m/m	High	-0.4%	0.4%
What It Measures CPI measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services over time. It is the most widely used gauge of inflation and directly influences central bank monetary policy decisions. Why It Matters to Forex Inflation is the #1 driver of currency value. Central banks raise interest rates to fight high inflation (attracting foreign capital and strengthening the currency) and cut rates during low inflation (weakening the currency). CPI surprises are among the most market-moving events alongside NFP and central bank decisions. Bullish Scenario A higher-than-expected CPI print signals rising inflation pressure. This forces the central bank to maintain or accelerate interest rate hikes, making the currency more attractive to yield-seeking investors. The currency rallies as rate hike expectations are priced in. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario A lower-than-expected CPI print signals cooling inflation or deflation risk. Markets price in rate cuts or a pause in the tightening cycle. The currency sells off as yield expectations drop. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement High impact: 30-80 pips (major pairs) • Medium impact: 15-40 pips (cross pairs) • Minor pairs: 10-25 pips Affected Currency Pairs Event country + all major pairs containing that currency. USD-CPI moves EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, USDCHF. AUD-CPI moves AUDUSD, EURAUD, GBPAUD, AUDJPY. Intermarket Connections PPI (Producer Price Index) leads CPI by 2-3 months — rising PPI eventually passes through to consumers. CPI directly influences Interest Rate Decisions at the next central bank meeting. Retail Sales data shows whether consumers can sustain spending under inflation pressure. Employment data affects wage-driven inflation — rising wages feed into services CPI. Import Prices affect CPI — a weak currency makes imports expensive, pushing CPI up. Historical Context Central banks target 2% inflation (PCE in the US, CPI in most others). CPI above 5% triggers aggressive tightening. CPI below 1% risks deflation and forces emergency easing. The 2021-2023 inflation spike saw CPI peak at 9.1% in the US, triggering the fastest rate hiking cycle in 40 years. View on Forex Factory
1:30am	🇦🇺	AUD	CPI y/y	High	4.3%	4.2%
What It Measures CPI measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services over time. It is the most widely used gauge of inflation and directly influences central bank monetary policy decisions. Why It Matters to Forex Inflation is the #1 driver of currency value. Central banks raise interest rates to fight high inflation (attracting foreign capital and strengthening the currency) and cut rates during low inflation (weakening the currency). CPI surprises are among the most market-moving events alongside NFP and central bank decisions. Bullish Scenario A higher-than-expected CPI print signals rising inflation pressure. This forces the central bank to maintain or accelerate interest rate hikes, making the currency more attractive to yield-seeking investors. The currency rallies as rate hike expectations are priced in. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario A lower-than-expected CPI print signals cooling inflation or deflation risk. Markets price in rate cuts or a pause in the tightening cycle. The currency sells off as yield expectations drop. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement High impact: 30-80 pips (major pairs) • Medium impact: 15-40 pips (cross pairs) • Minor pairs: 10-25 pips Affected Currency Pairs Event country + all major pairs containing that currency. USD-CPI moves EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, USDCHF. AUD-CPI moves AUDUSD, EURAUD, GBPAUD, AUDJPY. Intermarket Connections PPI (Producer Price Index) leads CPI by 2-3 months — rising PPI eventually passes through to consumers. CPI directly influences Interest Rate Decisions at the next central bank meeting. Retail Sales data shows whether consumers can sustain spending under inflation pressure. Employment data affects wage-driven inflation — rising wages feed into services CPI. Import Prices affect CPI — a weak currency makes imports expensive, pushing CPI up. Historical Context Central banks target 2% inflation (PCE in the US, CPI in most others). CPI above 5% triggers aggressive tightening. CPI below 1% risks deflation and forces emergency easing. The 2021-2023 inflation spike saw CPI peak at 9.1% in the US, triggering the fastest rate hiking cycle in 40 years. View on Forex Factory
1:30am	🇦🇺	AUD	Trimmed Mean CPI m/m	High	0.3%	0.3%
What It Measures This release measures trimmed mean cpi m/m for AUD. This economic event provides data about the reporting country's economic conditions. The specific impact depends on whether the actual figure beats or misses market expectations relative to the forecast. Why It Matters to Forex Market expectations are priced in before the release. A significant deviation from the forecast causes price adjustment as traders reassess their positions. Higher than expected readings generally support the currency; lower readings weaken it. Bullish Scenario A high impact event. Actual figure significantly exceeds forecast. This suggests the economy is performing better than expected, increasing the probability of tighter monetary policy. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Actual figure significantly misses forecast. This suggests economic weakness, increasing expectations for looser monetary policy. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Estimated: 20-50 pips for major pairs Affected Currency Pairs Pairs containing the reporting country's currency. Intermarket Connections The deviation from forecast is more important than the absolute number. Revisions to previous data can amplify or reverse the initial market reaction. Multiple events on the same day compound their effects — overlapping high-impact events create outsized volatility. View on Forex Factory
6:30am	🇦🇺	AUD	RBA Deputy Gov Hauser Speaks	Low	-	-
What It Measures Governors, FOMC members, MPC members, or Board Governors give public speeches on the economy and monetary policy outlook. These are unscheduled and can happen anytime. Why It Matters to Forex Speeches give clues about the next rate decision before the official meeting. A hawkish comment from a typically dovish member is more impactful than a hawkish comment from a known hawk. Markets parse every word for shifts in tone. Bullish Scenario Comments about "inflation persistence", "need for further tightening", "economy running hot" => hawkish => currency strengthens. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Comments about "risks to growth", "data dependency", "patience" => dovish => currency weakens. "We are close to the peak" is strongly dovish. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Dovish hawkish shift: 20-60 pips • Major shift: 50-100 pips Affected Currency Pairs USD speeches move all USD pairs. EUR speeches move EUR pairs. GBP speeches move GBP pairs. Cross-country impact: Fed speeches affect global risk sentiment. Intermarket Connections The FOMC voting member status matters — voters for the current year have more impact on market expectations. Chairs/Presidents (Powell, Lagarde, Bailey) have the most impact — their words carry the full weight of the institution. Hawk/Dove rankings are published by banks — a shift in a member's ranking is more important than the absolute content. View on Forex Factory
7:00am	🇨🇭	CHF	Gov Board Member Martin Speaks	Low	-	-
What It Measures Governors, FOMC members, MPC members, or Board Governors give public speeches on the economy and monetary policy outlook. These are unscheduled and can happen anytime. Why It Matters to Forex Speeches give clues about the next rate decision before the official meeting. A hawkish comment from a typically dovish member is more impactful than a hawkish comment from a known hawk. Markets parse every word for shifts in tone. Bullish Scenario Comments about "inflation persistence", "need for further tightening", "economy running hot" => hawkish => currency strengthens. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Comments about "risks to growth", "data dependency", "patience" => dovish => currency weakens. "We are close to the peak" is strongly dovish. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Dovish hawkish shift: 20-60 pips • Major shift: 50-100 pips Affected Currency Pairs USD speeches move all USD pairs. EUR speeches move EUR pairs. GBP speeches move GBP pairs. Cross-country impact: Fed speeches affect global risk sentiment. Intermarket Connections The FOMC voting member status matters — voters for the current year have more impact on market expectations. Chairs/Presidents (Powell, Lagarde, Bailey) have the most impact — their words carry the full weight of the institution. Hawk/Dove rankings are published by banks — a shift in a member's ranking is more important than the absolute content. View on Forex Factory
8:00am	🇨🇭	CHF	UBS Economic Expectations	Low	-	-11.1
What It Measures This release measures ubs economic expectations for CHF. This economic event provides data about the reporting country's economic conditions. The specific impact depends on whether the actual figure beats or misses market expectations relative to the forecast. Why It Matters to Forex Market expectations are priced in before the release. A significant deviation from the forecast causes price adjustment as traders reassess their positions. Higher than expected readings generally support the currency; lower readings weaken it. Bullish Scenario A low impact event. Actual figure significantly exceeds forecast. This suggests the economy is performing better than expected, increasing the probability of tighter monetary policy. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Actual figure significantly misses forecast. This suggests economic weakness, increasing expectations for looser monetary policy. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Estimated: 5-15 pips Affected Currency Pairs Pairs containing the reporting country's currency. Intermarket Connections The deviation from forecast is more important than the absolute number. Revisions to previous data can amplify or reverse the initial market reaction. Multiple events on the same day compound their effects — overlapping high-impact events create outsized volatility. View on Forex Factory
8:00am	🇪🇺	EUR	German ifo Business Climate	Low	85.6	84.9
What It Measures Monthly surveys of consumer attitudes about current and future economic conditions. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (US) and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (US) are the most widely followed. Similar surveys exist for most developed economies. Why It Matters to Forex Consumer confidence is a LEADING indicator — confident consumers spend more, drive GDP, and support inflation. Plunging confidence signals a recession 6-12 months in advance. The "Expectations" sub-index (future outlook) is the most predictive component. Bullish Scenario Confidence rising sharply + Expectations sub-index above 80 => consumers optimistic about future => spending will follow => currency strengthens. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Confidence falling sharply + Expectations sub-index below 60 => consumers pessimistic => spending pullback ahead => currency weakens. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Major surprise: 15-35 pips Affected Currency Pairs Reporting country currency. US confidence measures affect all USD pairs. Intermarket Connections The Expectations sub-index is more important than Current Conditions — it predicts future spending. Consumer Confidence (Conference Board) focuses on labor market perceptions — "Jobs Hard to Get" is the key sub-index. UoM Consumer Sentiment includes Inflation Expectations — the most important component for the Fed. Consumer confidence tends to rise with stock markets (wealth effect) and fall with gas prices. Ifo Business Climate (Germany) is the manufacturing equivalent — business leaders' expectations predict production. View on Forex Factory
9:00am	🇪🇺	EUR	German Buba President Nagel Speaks	Low	-	-
What It Measures Governors, FOMC members, MPC members, or Board Governors give public speeches on the economy and monetary policy outlook. These are unscheduled and can happen anytime. Why It Matters to Forex Speeches give clues about the next rate decision before the official meeting. A hawkish comment from a typically dovish member is more impactful than a hawkish comment from a known hawk. Markets parse every word for shifts in tone. Bullish Scenario Comments about "inflation persistence", "need for further tightening", "economy running hot" => hawkish => currency strengthens. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Comments about "risks to growth", "data dependency", "patience" => dovish => currency weakens. "We are close to the peak" is strongly dovish. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Dovish hawkish shift: 20-60 pips • Major shift: 50-100 pips Affected Currency Pairs USD speeches move all USD pairs. EUR speeches move EUR pairs. GBP speeches move GBP pairs. Cross-country impact: Fed speeches affect global risk sentiment. Intermarket Connections The FOMC voting member status matters — voters for the current year have more impact on market expectations. Chairs/Presidents (Powell, Lagarde, Bailey) have the most impact — their words carry the full weight of the institution. Hawk/Dove rankings are published by banks — a shift in a member's ranking is more important than the absolute content. View on Forex Factory
9:40am	🇪🇺	EUR	German 10-y Bond Auction	Low	-	3.06\|1.7
What It Measures The sale of government debt (2-yr, 5-yr, 7-yr, 10-yr, 30-yr bonds) to investors. Results include the yield, bid-to-cover ratio (demand), and indirect bidder participation (foreign central banks). Why It Matters to Forex Bond auctions reveal the market's appetite for a country's debt. Strong demand (high bid-to-cover) means investors trust the country's fiscal outlook. Weak demand forces yields higher, which can destabilize markets. Foreign central bank participation (indirect bids) shows whether other countries are buying the currency. Bullish Scenario High bid-to-cover (above 2.5x) + yields stable or falling => strong demand => vote of confidence in fiscal policy => currency strengthens. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Low bid-to-cover (below 2.0x) + yields spiking => weak demand => investors demanding higher risk premium => currency weakens. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Moderate: 10-20 pips • Failed auction: 30-60 pips (rare) Affected Currency Pairs Bond auctions affect the issuing country's currency and global risk sentiment. US Treasury auctions affect all pairs. Intermarket Connections Indirect bidders = foreign central banks. Declining participation means foreign governments are reducing their holdings of that country's debt. The yield relative to the "when-issued" pre-auction trading is the first measure of success. Tail = difference between average yield and highest accepted yield. A large tail signals weak demand. Bond yields and currency values have a complex relationship — higher yields normally attract capital and strengthen the currency (until yields rise because of default risk). View on Forex Factory
11:15am	🇨🇦	CAD	Gov Council Member Rogers Speaks	Low	-	-
What It Measures Governors, FOMC members, MPC members, or Board Governors give public speeches on the economy and monetary policy outlook. These are unscheduled and can happen anytime. Why It Matters to Forex Speeches give clues about the next rate decision before the official meeting. A hawkish comment from a typically dovish member is more impactful than a hawkish comment from a known hawk. Markets parse every word for shifts in tone. Bullish Scenario Comments about "inflation persistence", "need for further tightening", "economy running hot" => hawkish => currency strengthens. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Comments about "risks to growth", "data dependency", "patience" => dovish => currency weakens. "We are close to the peak" is strongly dovish. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Dovish hawkish shift: 20-60 pips • Major shift: 50-100 pips Affected Currency Pairs USD speeches move all USD pairs. EUR speeches move EUR pairs. GBP speeches move GBP pairs. Cross-country impact: Fed speeches affect global risk sentiment. Intermarket Connections The FOMC voting member status matters — voters for the current year have more impact on market expectations. Chairs/Presidents (Powell, Lagarde, Bailey) have the most impact — their words carry the full weight of the institution. Hawk/Dove rankings are published by banks — a shift in a member's ranking is more important than the absolute content. View on Forex Factory
11:15am	🇬🇧	GBP	MPC Member Breeden Speaks	Low	-	-
What It Measures Governors, FOMC members, MPC members, or Board Governors give public speeches on the economy and monetary policy outlook. These are unscheduled and can happen anytime. Why It Matters to Forex Speeches give clues about the next rate decision before the official meeting. A hawkish comment from a typically dovish member is more impactful than a hawkish comment from a known hawk. Markets parse every word for shifts in tone. Bullish Scenario Comments about "inflation persistence", "need for further tightening", "economy running hot" => hawkish => currency strengthens. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Comments about "risks to growth", "data dependency", "patience" => dovish => currency weakens. "We are close to the peak" is strongly dovish. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Dovish hawkish shift: 20-60 pips • Major shift: 50-100 pips Affected Currency Pairs USD speeches move all USD pairs. EUR speeches move EUR pairs. GBP speeches move GBP pairs. Cross-country impact: Fed speeches affect global risk sentiment. Intermarket Connections The FOMC voting member status matters — voters for the current year have more impact on market expectations. Chairs/Presidents (Powell, Lagarde, Bailey) have the most impact — their words carry the full weight of the institution. Hawk/Dove rankings are published by banks — a shift in a member's ranking is more important than the absolute content. View on Forex Factory
12:30pm	🇺🇸	USD	Current Account	Low	-212B	-191B
What It Measures This release measures current account for USD. This economic event provides data about the reporting country's economic conditions. The specific impact depends on whether the actual figure beats or misses market expectations relative to the forecast. Why It Matters to Forex Market expectations are priced in before the release. A significant deviation from the forecast causes price adjustment as traders reassess their positions. Higher than expected readings generally support the currency; lower readings weaken it. Bullish Scenario A low impact event. Actual figure significantly exceeds forecast. This suggests the economy is performing better than expected, increasing the probability of tighter monetary policy. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Actual figure significantly misses forecast. This suggests economic weakness, increasing expectations for looser monetary policy. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Estimated: 5-15 pips Affected Currency Pairs Pairs containing the reporting country's currency. Intermarket Connections The deviation from forecast is more important than the absolute number. Revisions to previous data can amplify or reverse the initial market reaction. Multiple events on the same day compound their effects — overlapping high-impact events create outsized volatility. View on Forex Factory
12:38pm	🇪🇺	EUR	Belgian NBB Business Climate	Low	-12.0	-13.3
What It Measures Monthly surveys of consumer attitudes about current and future economic conditions. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (US) and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (US) are the most widely followed. Similar surveys exist for most developed economies. Why It Matters to Forex Consumer confidence is a LEADING indicator — confident consumers spend more, drive GDP, and support inflation. Plunging confidence signals a recession 6-12 months in advance. The "Expectations" sub-index (future outlook) is the most predictive component. Bullish Scenario Confidence rising sharply + Expectations sub-index above 80 => consumers optimistic about future => spending will follow => currency strengthens. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Confidence falling sharply + Expectations sub-index below 60 => consumers pessimistic => spending pullback ahead => currency weakens. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Major surprise: 15-35 pips Affected Currency Pairs Reporting country currency. US confidence measures affect all USD pairs. Intermarket Connections The Expectations sub-index is more important than Current Conditions — it predicts future spending. Consumer Confidence (Conference Board) focuses on labor market perceptions — "Jobs Hard to Get" is the key sub-index. UoM Consumer Sentiment includes Inflation Expectations — the most important component for the Fed. Consumer confidence tends to rise with stock markets (wealth effect) and fall with gas prices. Ifo Business Climate (Germany) is the manufacturing equivalent — business leaders' expectations predict production. View on Forex Factory
1:00pm	🇨🇭	CHF	SNB Quarterly Bulletin	Low	-	-
What It Measures This release measures snb quarterly bulletin for CHF. This economic event provides data about the reporting country's economic conditions. The specific impact depends on whether the actual figure beats or misses market expectations relative to the forecast. Why It Matters to Forex Market expectations are priced in before the release. A significant deviation from the forecast causes price adjustment as traders reassess their positions. Higher than expected readings generally support the currency; lower readings weaken it. Bullish Scenario A low impact event. Actual figure significantly exceeds forecast. This suggests the economy is performing better than expected, increasing the probability of tighter monetary policy. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Actual figure significantly misses forecast. This suggests economic weakness, increasing expectations for looser monetary policy. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Estimated: 5-15 pips Affected Currency Pairs Pairs containing the reporting country's currency. Intermarket Connections The deviation from forecast is more important than the absolute number. Revisions to previous data can amplify or reverse the initial market reaction. Multiple events on the same day compound their effects — overlapping high-impact events create outsized volatility. View on Forex Factory
2:00pm	🇺🇸	USD	New Home Sales	Low	638K	622K
What It Measures Building Permits (future construction approvals), Housing Starts (new construction begun), and New Home Sales (newly built homes sold). Together they measure the health of the housing sector, which is a leading economic indicator. Why It Matters to Forex Housing is the most interest-rate-sensitive sector of the economy. When rates rise, housing immediately slows. When rates fall, housing recovers first. Housing data gives the earliest signal about whether monetary policy is working. Strength in housing ripples through construction jobs, home furnishings, and consumer confidence. Bullish Scenario Housing Starts rising + Building Permits rising => construction sector expanding => economic momentum building => currency positive. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Housing Starts falling + Building Permits falling => rate hikes biting => economic slowdown ahead => currency negative. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Moderate: 10-25 pips Affected Currency Pairs Reporting country currency. US housing data moves USD pairs moderately. Intermarket Connections Building Permits lead Housing Starts by 1-2 months — permits are the forward-looking indicator. Housing starts affect: employment (construction jobs), retail sales (furniture, appliances), and CPI (rents). Mortgage Rates directly correlate with housing activity — the housing market is the fastest channel of monetary policy transmission. Existing Home Sales (transactions of existing homes, not new builds) are a separate but related release — existing home sales are more about consumer mobility and Realtor commissions. NAHB Housing Market Index is a sentiment survey of homebuilders — it leads Starts by 2-3 months. View on Forex Factory
2:30pm	🇺🇸	USD	Crude Oil Inventories	Low	-3.9M	-8.3M
What It Measures Weekly report (DOE/EIA) measuring the change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US firms. Released every Wednesday at 10:30 AM ET. Why It Matters to Forex Oil inventories directly affect oil prices, which flow through to inflation (gasoline prices), trade balance (oil import costs), and CAD/NOK (oil-exporting currencies). A large draw (inventory decline) signals strong demand or supply disruption, pushing oil prices up. Bullish Scenario Large draw (decline) in inventories + gasoline inventories also drawing => strong demand => oil prices rise => CAD, NOK strengthen. USD weakens (higher oil prices hurt US consumers). Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Large build (increase) in inventories => oversupply => oil prices fall => CAD, NOK weaken => importers (USD, JPY) benefit. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Major surprise: 15-30 pips (USDCAD) • Cross impact: 10-20 pips (CADJPY, EURCAD) Affected Currency Pairs USDCAD most strongly. Also affects NOK pairs, USDJPY, and risk sentiment broadly. Intermarket Connections API Weekly Statistical Bulletin (Tuesday) provides a preview of Wednesday's official EIA report. Cushing, OK storage hub level is the key inventory indicator — Cushing is the delivery point for NYMEX crude futures. Gasoline inventories affect consumer spending — higher gas prices reduce discretionary spending. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) releases can distort inventory data — adjust for SPR changes when analyzing. View on Forex Factory
3:00pm	🇬🇧	GBP	MPC Member Dhingra Speaks	Low	-	-
What It Measures Governors, FOMC members, MPC members, or Board Governors give public speeches on the economy and monetary policy outlook. These are unscheduled and can happen anytime. Why It Matters to Forex Speeches give clues about the next rate decision before the official meeting. A hawkish comment from a typically dovish member is more impactful than a hawkish comment from a known hawk. Markets parse every word for shifts in tone. Bullish Scenario Comments about "inflation persistence", "need for further tightening", "economy running hot" => hawkish => currency strengthens. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Comments about "risks to growth", "data dependency", "patience" => dovish => currency weakens. "We are close to the peak" is strongly dovish. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Dovish hawkish shift: 20-60 pips • Major shift: 50-100 pips Affected Currency Pairs USD speeches move all USD pairs. EUR speeches move EUR pairs. GBP speeches move GBP pairs. Cross-country impact: Fed speeches affect global risk sentiment. Intermarket Connections The FOMC voting member status matters — voters for the current year have more impact on market expectations. Chairs/Presidents (Powell, Lagarde, Bailey) have the most impact — their words carry the full weight of the institution. Hawk/Dove rankings are published by banks — a shift in a member's ranking is more important than the absolute content. View on Forex Factory
4:30pm	🇬🇧	GBP	MPC Member Pill Speaks	Low	-	-
What It Measures Governors, FOMC members, MPC members, or Board Governors give public speeches on the economy and monetary policy outlook. These are unscheduled and can happen anytime. Why It Matters to Forex Speeches give clues about the next rate decision before the official meeting. A hawkish comment from a typically dovish member is more impactful than a hawkish comment from a known hawk. Markets parse every word for shifts in tone. Bullish Scenario Comments about "inflation persistence", "need for further tightening", "economy running hot" => hawkish => currency strengthens. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Comments about "risks to growth", "data dependency", "patience" => dovish => currency weakens. "We are close to the peak" is strongly dovish. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Dovish hawkish shift: 20-60 pips • Major shift: 50-100 pips Affected Currency Pairs USD speeches move all USD pairs. EUR speeches move EUR pairs. GBP speeches move GBP pairs. Cross-country impact: Fed speeches affect global risk sentiment. Intermarket Connections The FOMC voting member status matters — voters for the current year have more impact on market expectations. Chairs/Presidents (Powell, Lagarde, Bailey) have the most impact — their words carry the full weight of the institution. Hawk/Dove rankings are published by banks — a shift in a member's ranking is more important than the absolute content. View on Forex Factory
5:30pm	🇨🇦	CAD	BOC Summary of Deliberations	Low	-	-
What It Measures This release measures boc summary of deliberations for CAD. This economic event provides data about the reporting country's economic conditions. The specific impact depends on whether the actual figure beats or misses market expectations relative to the forecast. Why It Matters to Forex Market expectations are priced in before the release. A significant deviation from the forecast causes price adjustment as traders reassess their positions. Higher than expected readings generally support the currency; lower readings weaken it. Bullish Scenario A low impact event. Actual figure significantly exceeds forecast. This suggests the economy is performing better than expected, increasing the probability of tighter monetary policy. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Actual figure significantly misses forecast. This suggests economic weakness, increasing expectations for looser monetary policy. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Estimated: 5-15 pips Affected Currency Pairs Pairs containing the reporting country's currency. Intermarket Connections The deviation from forecast is more important than the absolute number. Revisions to previous data can amplify or reverse the initial market reaction. Multiple events on the same day compound their effects — overlapping high-impact events create outsized volatility. View on Forex Factory
8:00pm	🇺🇸	USD	Bank Stress Test Results	Low	-	-
What It Measures This release measures bank stress test results for USD. This economic event provides data about the reporting country's economic conditions. The specific impact depends on whether the actual figure beats or misses market expectations relative to the forecast. Why It Matters to Forex Market expectations are priced in before the release. A significant deviation from the forecast causes price adjustment as traders reassess their positions. Higher than expected readings generally support the currency; lower readings weaken it. Bullish Scenario A low impact event. Actual figure significantly exceeds forecast. This suggests the economy is performing better than expected, increasing the probability of tighter monetary policy. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Actual figure significantly misses forecast. This suggests economic weakness, increasing expectations for looser monetary policy. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Estimated: 5-15 pips Affected Currency Pairs Pairs containing the reporting country's currency. Intermarket Connections The deviation from forecast is more important than the absolute number. Revisions to previous data can amplify or reverse the initial market reaction. Multiple events on the same day compound their effects — overlapping high-impact events create outsized volatility. View on Forex Factory
Thursday, June 25, 2026
12:30am	🇺🇸	USD	President Trump Speaks	Medium	-	-
What It Measures Governors, FOMC members, MPC members, or Board Governors give public speeches on the economy and monetary policy outlook. These are unscheduled and can happen anytime. Why It Matters to Forex Speeches give clues about the next rate decision before the official meeting. A hawkish comment from a typically dovish member is more impactful than a hawkish comment from a known hawk. Markets parse every word for shifts in tone. Bullish Scenario Comments about "inflation persistence", "need for further tightening", "economy running hot" => hawkish => currency strengthens. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Comments about "risks to growth", "data dependency", "patience" => dovish => currency weakens. "We are close to the peak" is strongly dovish. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Dovish hawkish shift: 20-60 pips • Major shift: 50-100 pips Affected Currency Pairs USD speeches move all USD pairs. EUR speeches move EUR pairs. GBP speeches move GBP pairs. Cross-country impact: Fed speeches affect global risk sentiment. Intermarket Connections The FOMC voting member status matters — voters for the current year have more impact on market expectations. Chairs/Presidents (Powell, Lagarde, Bailey) have the most impact — their words carry the full weight of the institution. Hawk/Dove rankings are published by banks — a shift in a member's ranking is more important than the absolute content. View on Forex Factory
1:30am	🇦🇺	AUD	Employment Change	High	31.2K	-18.6K
What It Measures The national equivalent of NFP for countries other than the US. Measures monthly change in employed persons. Most closely watched for AUD (Australia), NZD (New Zealand), and CAD (Canada). Why It Matters to Forex Employment data is the second most important economic indicator for most countries, behind only CPI. Central banks prioritize the labor market — full employment is half of their dual mandate (alongside price stability). Bullish Scenario Employment rising strongly + participation rate steady => economy at full capacity => currency strengthens on rate hike expectations. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Employment falling or missing expectations significantly => economy weakening => currency sells off on rate cut expectations. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement High impact: 20-60 pips for AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USDCAD Affected Currency Pairs Reporting country currency: AUD Employment moves AUDUSD, EURAUD, GBPAUD. CAD Employment moves USDCAD, EURCAD, CADJPY. Intermarket Connections Employment Change is released alongside Unemployment Rate — the combination paints the full picture. Part-time vs Full-time breakdown matters — full-time jobs growth is more bullish than part-time. Participation Rate shows whether people are actively looking — falling participation can mask a weak labor market. Employment feeds Consumer Spending which drives Retail Sales and GDP. View on Forex Factory
1:30am	🇦🇺	AUD	Unemployment Rate	High	4.4%	4.5%
What It Measures The percentage of the total labor force that is unemployed but actively seeking employment. Released monthly alongside Employment Change or NFP. Why It Matters to Forex The unemployment rate is the most intuitive economic health metric. Central banks have explicit targets — the Fed considers 4.1% or below as "maximum employment." A rising unemployment rate forces rate cuts regardless of what inflation is doing. Bullish Scenario Unemployment falling or steady near lows => labor market tight => wage pressure => rate hikes hold => currency strong. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Unemployment rising sharply (0.2%+ in one month) => recession warning => rate cuts expected => currency weakens. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement When released with employment: 10-30 pips additional move beyond the headline print Affected Currency Pairs Same as Employment Change/NFP for the reporting country. Intermarket Connections The Unemployment Rate is a lagging indicator — it peaks after recessions have already started and bottoms after recoveries are well underway. Wage growth (Average Hourly Earnings) is directly linked to unemployment — the Phillips Curve shows low unemployment drives wage inflation. U-6 Unemployment (includes discouraged workers and part-time for economic reasons) is the broader measure the Fed watches behind the scenes. A falling unemployment rate combined with rising labor force participation is the most healthy labor market signal. View on Forex Factory
1:30am	🇦🇺	AUD	Household Spending m/m	Low	0.5%	-1.1%
What It Measures This release measures household spending m/m for AUD. This economic event provides data about the reporting country's economic conditions. The specific impact depends on whether the actual figure beats or misses market expectations relative to the forecast. Why It Matters to Forex Market expectations are priced in before the release. A significant deviation from the forecast causes price adjustment as traders reassess their positions. Higher than expected readings generally support the currency; lower readings weaken it. Bullish Scenario A low impact event. Actual figure significantly exceeds forecast. This suggests the economy is performing better than expected, increasing the probability of tighter monetary policy. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Actual figure significantly misses forecast. This suggests economic weakness, increasing expectations for looser monetary policy. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Estimated: 5-15 pips Affected Currency Pairs Pairs containing the reporting country's currency. Intermarket Connections The deviation from forecast is more important than the absolute number. Revisions to previous data can amplify or reverse the initial market reaction. Multiple events on the same day compound their effects — overlapping high-impact events create outsized volatility. View on Forex Factory
3:50am	🇦🇺	AUD	NAB Quarterly Business Confidence	Low	-	-4
What It Measures This release measures nab quarterly business confidence for AUD. This economic event provides data about the reporting country's economic conditions. The specific impact depends on whether the actual figure beats or misses market expectations relative to the forecast. Why It Matters to Forex Market expectations are priced in before the release. A significant deviation from the forecast causes price adjustment as traders reassess their positions. Higher than expected readings generally support the currency; lower readings weaken it. Bullish Scenario A low impact event. Actual figure significantly exceeds forecast. This suggests the economy is performing better than expected, increasing the probability of tighter monetary policy. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Actual figure significantly misses forecast. This suggests economic weakness, increasing expectations for looser monetary policy. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Estimated: 5-15 pips Affected Currency Pairs Pairs containing the reporting country's currency. Intermarket Connections The deviation from forecast is more important than the absolute number. Revisions to previous data can amplify or reverse the initial market reaction. Multiple events on the same day compound their effects — overlapping high-impact events create outsized volatility. View on Forex Factory
6:00am	🇪🇺	EUR	German GfK Consumer Climate	Low	-27.8	-29.8
What It Measures Monthly surveys of consumer attitudes about current and future economic conditions. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (US) and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (US) are the most widely followed. Similar surveys exist for most developed economies. Why It Matters to Forex Consumer confidence is a LEADING indicator — confident consumers spend more, drive GDP, and support inflation. Plunging confidence signals a recession 6-12 months in advance. The "Expectations" sub-index (future outlook) is the most predictive component. Bullish Scenario Confidence rising sharply + Expectations sub-index above 80 => consumers optimistic about future => spending will follow => currency strengthens. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Confidence falling sharply + Expectations sub-index below 60 => consumers pessimistic => spending pullback ahead => currency weakens. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Major surprise: 15-35 pips Affected Currency Pairs Reporting country currency. US confidence measures affect all USD pairs. Intermarket Connections The Expectations sub-index is more important than Current Conditions — it predicts future spending. Consumer Confidence (Conference Board) focuses on labor market perceptions — "Jobs Hard to Get" is the key sub-index. UoM Consumer Sentiment includes Inflation Expectations — the most important component for the Fed. Consumer confidence tends to rise with stock markets (wealth effect) and fall with gas prices. Ifo Business Climate (Germany) is the manufacturing equivalent — business leaders' expectations predict production. View on Forex Factory
8:00am	🇪🇺	EUR	ECB Economic Bulletin	Low	-	-
What It Measures This release measures ecb economic bulletin for EUR. This economic event provides data about the reporting country's economic conditions. The specific impact depends on whether the actual figure beats or misses market expectations relative to the forecast. Why It Matters to Forex Market expectations are priced in before the release. A significant deviation from the forecast causes price adjustment as traders reassess their positions. Higher than expected readings generally support the currency; lower readings weaken it. Bullish Scenario A low impact event. Actual figure significantly exceeds forecast. This suggests the economy is performing better than expected, increasing the probability of tighter monetary policy. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Actual figure significantly misses forecast. This suggests economic weakness, increasing expectations for looser monetary policy. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Estimated: 5-15 pips Affected Currency Pairs Pairs containing the reporting country's currency. Intermarket Connections The deviation from forecast is more important than the absolute number. Revisions to previous data can amplify or reverse the initial market reaction. Multiple events on the same day compound their effects — overlapping high-impact events create outsized volatility. View on Forex Factory
10:00am	🇬🇧	GBP	CBI Realized Sales	Low	-41	-46
What It Measures This release measures cbi realized sales for GBP. This economic event provides data about the reporting country's economic conditions. The specific impact depends on whether the actual figure beats or misses market expectations relative to the forecast. Why It Matters to Forex Market expectations are priced in before the release. A significant deviation from the forecast causes price adjustment as traders reassess their positions. Higher than expected readings generally support the currency; lower readings weaken it. Bullish Scenario A low impact event. Actual figure significantly exceeds forecast. This suggests the economy is performing better than expected, increasing the probability of tighter monetary policy. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Actual figure significantly misses forecast. This suggests economic weakness, increasing expectations for looser monetary policy. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Estimated: 5-15 pips Affected Currency Pairs Pairs containing the reporting country's currency. Intermarket Connections The deviation from forecast is more important than the absolute number. Revisions to previous data can amplify or reverse the initial market reaction. Multiple events on the same day compound their effects — overlapping high-impact events create outsized volatility. View on Forex Factory
12:30pm	🇺🇸	USD	Core PCE Price Index m/m	High	0.3%	0.2%
What It Measures The PCE Price Index measures inflation across a broader range of goods and services than CPI. It is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge and the primary metric for monetary policy decisions. Why It Matters to Forex The Fed officially targets 2% PCE inflation. Unlike CPI which measures out-of-pocket costs, PCE captures what people actually consume (including employer-paid healthcare and government programs). The Fed sets interest rates based on PCE, making it arguably more important than CPI for USD pairs. Bullish Scenario PCE rising above 2% target => Fed hawkish => USD strengthens across all pairs. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario PCE falling below 2% or trending down => Fed dovish or cutting rates => USD weakens. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement High impact: 20-50 pips (major USD pairs) Affected Currency Pairs All USD pairs: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, USDCHF, and crosses. Intermarket Connections Core PCE (ex food & energy) is what the Fed targets — always watch Core PCE more than headline. PCE typically runs 0.3-0.5% below CPI due to different methodology (substitution effect, broader basket). Personal Income and Personal Spending are released alongside PCE — the trio together tells the full consumption story. Employment feeds into PCE via wage growth — more wages = more spending = higher PCE. View on Forex Factory
12:30pm	🇺🇸	USD	Final GDP q/q	High	1.6%	1.6%
What It Measures GDP measures the total value of all goods and services produced in a country over a specific period. It is the broadest measure of economic health and is released quarterly (advance, preliminary, and final estimates). Why It Matters to Forex GDP is the report card for the entire economy. Strong GDP growth supports currency appreciation through higher interest rates, increased corporate profits, and foreign investment inflows. Recessions (two consecutive quarters of negative GDP) trigger massive currency selloffs. Bullish Scenario GDP above 3% annualized (US) => economy expanding rapidly => rate hikes likely => currency strengthens broadly. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario GDP below 1% or negative => recession risk => rate cuts needed => currency weakens across all pairs. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Major surprise: 40-100 pips • Revision: 10-30 pips Affected Currency Pairs All pairs containing the reporting currency. US GDP affects every major pair. Intermarket Connections GDP is the SUM of: Consumption + Investment + Government Spending + (Exports - Imports). Personal Consumption is 68% of US GDP — Retail Sales data predicts the consumption component. Two consecutive negative GDP quarters = recession (by common definition, though NBER officially calls recessions). GDP revisions (from Advance to Preliminary to Final) can be as large as 1-2% — the revision is sometimes more impactful than the initial print. GDP Price Index (the deflator) is a broad inflation measure released with GDP — it gives the inflation context for the growth number. GDP vs GNP: GDP measures domestic production; GNP measures what citizens own globally. The difference shows how much foreign income flows out of the country. View on Forex Factory
12:30pm	🇺🇸	USD	Final GDP Price Index q/q	Medium	3.5%	3.5%
What It Measures GDP measures the total value of all goods and services produced in a country over a specific period. It is the broadest measure of economic health and is released quarterly (advance, preliminary, and final estimates). Why It Matters to Forex GDP is the report card for the entire economy. Strong GDP growth supports currency appreciation through higher interest rates, increased corporate profits, and foreign investment inflows. Recessions (two consecutive quarters of negative GDP) trigger massive currency selloffs. Bullish Scenario GDP above 3% annualized (US) => economy expanding rapidly => rate hikes likely => currency strengthens broadly. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario GDP below 1% or negative => recession risk => rate cuts needed => currency weakens across all pairs. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Major surprise: 40-100 pips • Revision: 10-30 pips Affected Currency Pairs All pairs containing the reporting currency. US GDP affects every major pair. Intermarket Connections GDP is the SUM of: Consumption + Investment + Government Spending + (Exports - Imports). Personal Consumption is 68% of US GDP — Retail Sales data predicts the consumption component. Two consecutive negative GDP quarters = recession (by common definition, though NBER officially calls recessions). GDP revisions (from Advance to Preliminary to Final) can be as large as 1-2% — the revision is sometimes more impactful than the initial print. GDP Price Index (the deflator) is a broad inflation measure released with GDP — it gives the inflation context for the growth number. GDP vs GNP: GDP measures domestic production; GNP measures what citizens own globally. The difference shows how much foreign income flows out of the country. View on Forex Factory
12:30pm	🇺🇸	USD	Unemployment Claims	Medium	225K	226K
What It Measures Initial Claims measures the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time in a week. Continuing Claims measures people still receiving benefits. Released every Thursday at 8:30 AM ET (US). Why It Matters to Forex This is the HIGHEST FREQUENCY employment indicator — weekly, not monthly. It provides the earliest warning of labor market deterioration. Spikes in claims (300K+) have historically preceded recessions. Markets react because it is timelier than NFP by 3-4 weeks. Bullish Scenario Claims below 200K (Initial) => layoffs minimal => labor market tight => USD positive. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Claims above 250K and trending up => layoffs accelerating => recession warning => USD negative. Claims above 300K is a red alert. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Normal: 5-15 pips • During crisis: 20-50 pips if claims spike dramatically Affected Currency Pairs USD pairs primarily. Also affects market sentiment broadly — risk-on/risk-off shifts. Intermarket Connections Initial Claims lead the Unemployment Rate by 2-3 months. Continuing Claims show how easy it is for unemployed workers to find new jobs — rising continuing claims means jobs are hard to find. Claims below 200K correlate with tight labor markets where employers are reluctant to fire. Claims above 350K for 4+ consecutive weeks is the historical recession signal used by economists. View on Forex Factory
12:30pm	🇺🇸	USD	Core Durable Goods Orders m/m	Low	0.5%	1.1%
What It Measures Measures new orders placed with manufacturers for delivery of factory goods that last 3+ years (machinery, computers, transportation equipment, aircraft). It is a leading indicator of manufacturing activity. Why It Matters to Forex Durable goods orders are VOLATILE but HIGHLY FORWARD-LOOKING. A surge in orders means factories will be busy for months, boosting employment and GDP. The "Core" reading (ex transportation, ex defense) is more stable and more closely watched. Bullish Scenario Core Durable Goods Orders rising => business investment expanding => future production secured => currency strengthens. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Core Durable Goods Orders falling => business investment contracting => future production at risk => currency weakens. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Core surprise: 15-35 pips • Headline only: 5-15 pips (headline is too volatile) Affected Currency Pairs USD pairs primarily. Also affects stock market sentiment. Intermarket Connections Core Capital Goods Orders (non-defense, ex-aircraft) = "Core of the Core" — the purest measure of business investment. Durable Goods orders lead Industrial Production by 3-6 months. Aircraft orders (Boeing) can swing headline durable goods by 10-20% in a single month — always watch Core ex-transportation. Business investment directly correlates with business confidence surveys. View on Forex Factory
12:30pm	🇺🇸	USD	Durable Goods Orders m/m	Low	-5.0%	7.9%
What It Measures Measures new orders placed with manufacturers for delivery of factory goods that last 3+ years (machinery, computers, transportation equipment, aircraft). It is a leading indicator of manufacturing activity. Why It Matters to Forex Durable goods orders are VOLATILE but HIGHLY FORWARD-LOOKING. A surge in orders means factories will be busy for months, boosting employment and GDP. The "Core" reading (ex transportation, ex defense) is more stable and more closely watched. Bullish Scenario Core Durable Goods Orders rising => business investment expanding => future production secured => currency strengthens. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Core Durable Goods Orders falling => business investment contracting => future production at risk => currency weakens. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Core surprise: 15-35 pips • Headline only: 5-15 pips (headline is too volatile) Affected Currency Pairs USD pairs primarily. Also affects stock market sentiment. Intermarket Connections Core Capital Goods Orders (non-defense, ex-aircraft) = "Core of the Core" — the purest measure of business investment. Durable Goods orders lead Industrial Production by 3-6 months. Aircraft orders (Boeing) can swing headline durable goods by 10-20% in a single month — always watch Core ex-transportation. Business investment directly correlates with business confidence surveys. View on Forex Factory
12:30pm	🇺🇸	USD	Personal Income m/m	Low	0.4%	0.0%
What It Measures This release measures personal income m/m for USD. This economic event provides data about the reporting country's economic conditions. The specific impact depends on whether the actual figure beats or misses market expectations relative to the forecast. Why It Matters to Forex Market expectations are priced in before the release. A significant deviation from the forecast causes price adjustment as traders reassess their positions. Higher than expected readings generally support the currency; lower readings weaken it. Bullish Scenario A low impact event. Actual figure significantly exceeds forecast. This suggests the economy is performing better than expected, increasing the probability of tighter monetary policy. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Actual figure significantly misses forecast. This suggests economic weakness, increasing expectations for looser monetary policy. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Estimated: 5-15 pips Affected Currency Pairs Pairs containing the reporting country's currency. Intermarket Connections The deviation from forecast is more important than the absolute number. Revisions to previous data can amplify or reverse the initial market reaction. Multiple events on the same day compound their effects — overlapping high-impact events create outsized volatility. View on Forex Factory
12:30pm	🇺🇸	USD	Personal Spending m/m	Low	0.6%	0.5%
What It Measures This release measures personal spending m/m for USD. This economic event provides data about the reporting country's economic conditions. The specific impact depends on whether the actual figure beats or misses market expectations relative to the forecast. Why It Matters to Forex Market expectations are priced in before the release. A significant deviation from the forecast causes price adjustment as traders reassess their positions. Higher than expected readings generally support the currency; lower readings weaken it. Bullish Scenario A low impact event. Actual figure significantly exceeds forecast. This suggests the economy is performing better than expected, increasing the probability of tighter monetary policy. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Actual figure significantly misses forecast. This suggests economic weakness, increasing expectations for looser monetary policy. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Estimated: 5-15 pips Affected Currency Pairs Pairs containing the reporting country's currency. Intermarket Connections The deviation from forecast is more important than the absolute number. Revisions to previous data can amplify or reverse the initial market reaction. Multiple events on the same day compound their effects — overlapping high-impact events create outsized volatility. View on Forex Factory
1:00pm	🇨🇳	CNY	CB Leading Index m/m	Low	-	-0.8%
What It Measures This release measures cb leading index m/m for CNY. This economic event provides data about the reporting country's economic conditions. The specific impact depends on whether the actual figure beats or misses market expectations relative to the forecast. Why It Matters to Forex Market expectations are priced in before the release. A significant deviation from the forecast causes price adjustment as traders reassess their positions. Higher than expected readings generally support the currency; lower readings weaken it. Bullish Scenario A low impact event. Actual figure significantly exceeds forecast. This suggests the economy is performing better than expected, increasing the probability of tighter monetary policy. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Actual figure significantly misses forecast. This suggests economic weakness, increasing expectations for looser monetary policy. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Estimated: 5-15 pips Affected Currency Pairs Pairs containing the reporting country's currency. Intermarket Connections The deviation from forecast is more important than the absolute number. Revisions to previous data can amplify or reverse the initial market reaction. Multiple events on the same day compound their effects — overlapping high-impact events create outsized volatility. View on Forex Factory
2:30pm	🇺🇸	USD	Natural Gas Storage	Low	67B	73B
What It Measures This release measures natural gas storage for USD. This economic event provides data about the reporting country's economic conditions. The specific impact depends on whether the actual figure beats or misses market expectations relative to the forecast. Why It Matters to Forex Market expectations are priced in before the release. A significant deviation from the forecast causes price adjustment as traders reassess their positions. Higher than expected readings generally support the currency; lower readings weaken it. Bullish Scenario A low impact event. Actual figure significantly exceeds forecast. This suggests the economy is performing better than expected, increasing the probability of tighter monetary policy. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Actual figure significantly misses forecast. This suggests economic weakness, increasing expectations for looser monetary policy. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Estimated: 5-15 pips Affected Currency Pairs Pairs containing the reporting country's currency. Intermarket Connections The deviation from forecast is more important than the absolute number. Revisions to previous data can amplify or reverse the initial market reaction. Multiple events on the same day compound their effects — overlapping high-impact events create outsized volatility. View on Forex Factory
7:40pm	🇺🇸	USD	FOMC Member Williams Speaks	Low	-	-
What It Measures Governors, FOMC members, MPC members, or Board Governors give public speeches on the economy and monetary policy outlook. These are unscheduled and can happen anytime. Why It Matters to Forex Speeches give clues about the next rate decision before the official meeting. A hawkish comment from a typically dovish member is more impactful than a hawkish comment from a known hawk. Markets parse every word for shifts in tone. Bullish Scenario Comments about "inflation persistence", "need for further tightening", "economy running hot" => hawkish => currency strengthens. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Comments about "risks to growth", "data dependency", "patience" => dovish => currency weakens. "We are close to the peak" is strongly dovish. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Dovish hawkish shift: 20-60 pips • Major shift: 50-100 pips Affected Currency Pairs USD speeches move all USD pairs. EUR speeches move EUR pairs. GBP speeches move GBP pairs. Cross-country impact: Fed speeches affect global risk sentiment. Intermarket Connections The FOMC voting member status matters — voters for the current year have more impact on market expectations. Chairs/Presidents (Powell, Lagarde, Bailey) have the most impact — their words carry the full weight of the institution. Hawk/Dove rankings are published by banks — a shift in a member's ranking is more important than the absolute content. View on Forex Factory
10:30pm	🇺🇸	USD	FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks	Low	-	-
What It Measures Governors, FOMC members, MPC members, or Board Governors give public speeches on the economy and monetary policy outlook. These are unscheduled and can happen anytime. Why It Matters to Forex Speeches give clues about the next rate decision before the official meeting. A hawkish comment from a typically dovish member is more impactful than a hawkish comment from a known hawk. Markets parse every word for shifts in tone. Bullish Scenario Comments about "inflation persistence", "need for further tightening", "economy running hot" => hawkish => currency strengthens. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Comments about "risks to growth", "data dependency", "patience" => dovish => currency weakens. "We are close to the peak" is strongly dovish. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Dovish hawkish shift: 20-60 pips • Major shift: 50-100 pips Affected Currency Pairs USD speeches move all USD pairs. EUR speeches move EUR pairs. GBP speeches move GBP pairs. Cross-country impact: Fed speeches affect global risk sentiment. Intermarket Connections The FOMC voting member status matters — voters for the current year have more impact on market expectations. Chairs/Presidents (Powell, Lagarde, Bailey) have the most impact — their words carry the full weight of the institution. Hawk/Dove rankings are published by banks — a shift in a member's ranking is more important than the absolute content. View on Forex Factory
11:30pm	🇯🇵	JPY	Tokyo Core CPI y/y	Medium	1.6%	1.3%
What It Measures Core CPI removes volatile food and energy prices to reveal the underlying inflation trend. Central banks focus on core CPI as a more reliable indicator of persistent inflation. Why It Matters to Forex Food and energy prices fluctuate wildly due to weather, geopolitics, and seasonal factors. Core CPI strips this noise away and shows the true inflation trajectory. A high core CPI reading forces central bank action regardless of what headline CPI says. Bullish Scenario Core CPI rising => persistent inflation => central bank must keep rates high => currency strengthens. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Core CPI falling => inflation under control => central bank can cut rates => currency weakens. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement High impact: 25-60 pips Affected Currency Pairs Same as CPI — affects all pairs with the reporting currency. Intermarket Connections Core CPI is the Federal Reserve preferred measure (PCE is their official target, but CPI trends correlate). Services inflation (a component of Core CPI) is the stickiest and most watched by central banks. Rent and shelter costs (30% of CPI) lag house prices by 12-18 months. View on Forex Factory
Friday, June 26, 2026
8:30am	🇪🇺	EUR	German Buba President Nagel Speaks	Low	-	-
What It Measures Governors, FOMC members, MPC members, or Board Governors give public speeches on the economy and monetary policy outlook. These are unscheduled and can happen anytime. Why It Matters to Forex Speeches give clues about the next rate decision before the official meeting. A hawkish comment from a typically dovish member is more impactful than a hawkish comment from a known hawk. Markets parse every word for shifts in tone. Bullish Scenario Comments about "inflation persistence", "need for further tightening", "economy running hot" => hawkish => currency strengthens. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Comments about "risks to growth", "data dependency", "patience" => dovish => currency weakens. "We are close to the peak" is strongly dovish. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Dovish hawkish shift: 20-60 pips • Major shift: 50-100 pips Affected Currency Pairs USD speeches move all USD pairs. EUR speeches move EUR pairs. GBP speeches move GBP pairs. Cross-country impact: Fed speeches affect global risk sentiment. Intermarket Connections The FOMC voting member status matters — voters for the current year have more impact on market expectations. Chairs/Presidents (Powell, Lagarde, Bailey) have the most impact — their words carry the full weight of the institution. Hawk/Dove rankings are published by banks — a shift in a member's ranking is more important than the absolute content. View on Forex Factory
9:33am	🇪🇺	EUR	Italian 10-y Bond Auction	Low	-	-
What It Measures The sale of government debt (2-yr, 5-yr, 7-yr, 10-yr, 30-yr bonds) to investors. Results include the yield, bid-to-cover ratio (demand), and indirect bidder participation (foreign central banks). Why It Matters to Forex Bond auctions reveal the market's appetite for a country's debt. Strong demand (high bid-to-cover) means investors trust the country's fiscal outlook. Weak demand forces yields higher, which can destabilize markets. Foreign central bank participation (indirect bids) shows whether other countries are buying the currency. Bullish Scenario High bid-to-cover (above 2.5x) + yields stable or falling => strong demand => vote of confidence in fiscal policy => currency strengthens. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Low bid-to-cover (below 2.0x) + yields spiking => weak demand => investors demanding higher risk premium => currency weakens. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Moderate: 10-20 pips • Failed auction: 30-60 pips (rare) Affected Currency Pairs Bond auctions affect the issuing country's currency and global risk sentiment. US Treasury auctions affect all pairs. Intermarket Connections Indirect bidders = foreign central banks. Declining participation means foreign governments are reducing their holdings of that country's debt. The yield relative to the "when-issued" pre-auction trading is the first measure of success. Tail = difference between average yield and highest accepted yield. A large tail signals weak demand. Bond yields and currency values have a complex relationship — higher yields normally attract capital and strengthen the currency (until yields rise because of default risk). View on Forex Factory
12:30pm	🇺🇸	USD	Goods Trade Balance	Low	-85.0B	-82.4B
What It Measures The difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. A positive balance (surplus) means the country exports more than it imports. A negative balance (deficit) means it imports more than it exports. Why It Matters to Forex Trade balance directly impacts GDP (exports add, imports subtract). A country with a persistent trade surplus tends to have a stronger currency because foreign buyers must purchase the domestic currency to pay for exports. A deficit can weaken the currency over time as domestic currency flows abroad. Bullish Scenario Narrowing deficit or widening surplus => exports growing faster than imports => currency demand increases => domestic currency strengthens. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Widening deficit or narrowing surplus => imports outpacing exports => currency flows abroad => domestic currency weakens. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Moderate: 10-25 pips • Extreme: 20-40 pips Affected Currency Pairs Reporting country currency. Most impactful for USD, CNY (via AUD/NZD), JPY, and EUR. Intermarket Connections Trade balance is heavily influenced by the TERMS OF TRADE — export prices vs import prices. A WEAKER CURRENCY eventually IMPROVES trade balance (makes exports cheaper, imports more expensive) — this is called the J-Curve effect. Oil-exporting countries (CAD, NOK) see their trade balance swing wildly with oil prices. Manufacturing PMI New Orders sub-index predicts future export performance. The US runs a structural trade deficit (imports exceed exports) — this is funded by foreign purchases of US Treasuries. View on Forex Factory
12:30pm	🇺🇸	USD	Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m	Low	0.3%	0.5%
What It Measures This release measures prelim wholesale inventories m/m for USD. This economic event provides data about the reporting country's economic conditions. The specific impact depends on whether the actual figure beats or misses market expectations relative to the forecast. Why It Matters to Forex Market expectations are priced in before the release. A significant deviation from the forecast causes price adjustment as traders reassess their positions. Higher than expected readings generally support the currency; lower readings weaken it. Bullish Scenario A low impact event. Actual figure significantly exceeds forecast. This suggests the economy is performing better than expected, increasing the probability of tighter monetary policy. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Actual figure significantly misses forecast. This suggests economic weakness, increasing expectations for looser monetary policy. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Estimated: 5-15 pips Affected Currency Pairs Pairs containing the reporting country's currency. Intermarket Connections The deviation from forecast is more important than the absolute number. Revisions to previous data can amplify or reverse the initial market reaction. Multiple events on the same day compound their effects — overlapping high-impact events create outsized volatility. View on Forex Factory
2:00pm	🇺🇸	USD	Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment	Medium	50.0	48.9
What It Measures Monthly surveys of consumer attitudes about current and future economic conditions. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (US) and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (US) are the most widely followed. Similar surveys exist for most developed economies. Why It Matters to Forex Consumer confidence is a LEADING indicator — confident consumers spend more, drive GDP, and support inflation. Plunging confidence signals a recession 6-12 months in advance. The "Expectations" sub-index (future outlook) is the most predictive component. Bullish Scenario Confidence rising sharply + Expectations sub-index above 80 => consumers optimistic about future => spending will follow => currency strengthens. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Confidence falling sharply + Expectations sub-index below 60 => consumers pessimistic => spending pullback ahead => currency weakens. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Major surprise: 15-35 pips Affected Currency Pairs Reporting country currency. US confidence measures affect all USD pairs. Intermarket Connections The Expectations sub-index is more important than Current Conditions — it predicts future spending. Consumer Confidence (Conference Board) focuses on labor market perceptions — "Jobs Hard to Get" is the key sub-index. UoM Consumer Sentiment includes Inflation Expectations — the most important component for the Fed. Consumer confidence tends to rise with stock markets (wealth effect) and fall with gas prices. Ifo Business Climate (Germany) is the manufacturing equivalent — business leaders' expectations predict production. View on Forex Factory
2:00pm	🇺🇸	USD	Revised UoM Inflation Expectations	Medium	-	4.6%
What It Measures Monthly surveys of consumer attitudes about current and future economic conditions. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (US) and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (US) are the most widely followed. Similar surveys exist for most developed economies. Why It Matters to Forex Consumer confidence is a LEADING indicator — confident consumers spend more, drive GDP, and support inflation. Plunging confidence signals a recession 6-12 months in advance. The "Expectations" sub-index (future outlook) is the most predictive component. Bullish Scenario Confidence rising sharply + Expectations sub-index above 80 => consumers optimistic about future => spending will follow => currency strengthens. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Confidence falling sharply + Expectations sub-index below 60 => consumers pessimistic => spending pullback ahead => currency weakens. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Major surprise: 15-35 pips Affected Currency Pairs Reporting country currency. US confidence measures affect all USD pairs. Intermarket Connections The Expectations sub-index is more important than Current Conditions — it predicts future spending. Consumer Confidence (Conference Board) focuses on labor market perceptions — "Jobs Hard to Get" is the key sub-index. UoM Consumer Sentiment includes Inflation Expectations — the most important component for the Fed. Consumer confidence tends to rise with stock markets (wealth effect) and fall with gas prices. Ifo Business Climate (Germany) is the manufacturing equivalent — business leaders' expectations predict production. View on Forex Factory
2:30pm	🇺🇸	USD	FOMC Member Williams Speaks	Low	-	-
What It Measures Governors, FOMC members, MPC members, or Board Governors give public speeches on the economy and monetary policy outlook. These are unscheduled and can happen anytime. Why It Matters to Forex Speeches give clues about the next rate decision before the official meeting. A hawkish comment from a typically dovish member is more impactful than a hawkish comment from a known hawk. Markets parse every word for shifts in tone. Bullish Scenario Comments about "inflation persistence", "need for further tightening", "economy running hot" => hawkish => currency strengthens. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Comments about "risks to growth", "data dependency", "patience" => dovish => currency weakens. "We are close to the peak" is strongly dovish. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Dovish hawkish shift: 20-60 pips • Major shift: 50-100 pips Affected Currency Pairs USD speeches move all USD pairs. EUR speeches move EUR pairs. GBP speeches move GBP pairs. Cross-country impact: Fed speeches affect global risk sentiment. Intermarket Connections The FOMC voting member status matters — voters for the current year have more impact on market expectations. Chairs/Presidents (Powell, Lagarde, Bailey) have the most impact — their words carry the full weight of the institution. Hawk/Dove rankings are published by banks — a shift in a member's ranking is more important than the absolute content. View on Forex Factory
3:30pm	🇺🇸	USD	FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks	Low	-	-
What It Measures Governors, FOMC members, MPC members, or Board Governors give public speeches on the economy and monetary policy outlook. These are unscheduled and can happen anytime. Why It Matters to Forex Speeches give clues about the next rate decision before the official meeting. A hawkish comment from a typically dovish member is more impactful than a hawkish comment from a known hawk. Markets parse every word for shifts in tone. Bullish Scenario Comments about "inflation persistence", "need for further tightening", "economy running hot" => hawkish => currency strengthens. Higher = Currency Strengthens Bearish Scenario Comments about "risks to growth", "data dependency", "patience" => dovish => currency weakens. "We are close to the peak" is strongly dovish. Lower = Currency Weakens Typical Pip Movement Dovish hawkish shift: 20-60 pips • Major shift: 50-100 pips Affected Currency Pairs USD speeches move all USD pairs. EUR speeches move EUR pairs. GBP speeches move GBP pairs. Cross-country impact: Fed speeches affect global risk sentiment. Intermarket Connections The FOMC voting member status matters — voters for the current year have more impact on market expectations. Chairs/Presidents (Powell, Lagarde, Bailey) have the most impact — their words carry the full weight of the institution. Hawk/Dove rankings are published by banks — a shift in a member's ranking is more important than the absolute content. View on Forex Factory

Data sourced from Forex Factory • Times in ET • Explanations auto-generated

How to Trade Economic News

A complete framework for trading any economic event — from NFP to CPI to central bank decisions

Know What Moves

High impact events (NFP, CPI, rate decisions) routinely move markets 50-100+ pips. Medium events (GDP, retail sales, PMI) move 20-50 pips. Low events (speeches, housing data) move 5-20 pips. Never trade a High impact event without a plan.

High Impact50-120 pips

Medium Impact15-50 pips

Low Impact5-20 pips

The 3-Phase News Trade

Phase 1 — Pre-event (30-60 min before): Reduce position sizes, widen stops, or exit entirely. Volatility often picks up 15-30 minutes before major releases as traders position themselves.

Phase 2 — The Spike (0-5 min after): The initial reaction is driven by algorithms. Price can spike 30-80 pips in seconds. Do not trade the spike. Wait for it to settle.

Phase 3 — The Follow-through (15 min - 3 hours): The real trade. After the initial spike and retracement, price establishes a new range. Enter in the direction of the trend with confirmation.

Actual vs. Forecast vs. Previous

Market moves on the deviation from forecast, not the absolute number. The formula:

Actual > Forecast = Surprise to the upside = Currency strengthens

Actual < Forecast = Surprise to the downside = Currency weakens

Actual = Forecast = As expected = Minimal movement

The Previous print matters for context — a beat against a high previous is less impressive than a beat against a low previous. Revisions to previous data can sometimes matter more than the current print.

Risk Management During News

News trading has the highest risk of any forex strategy. Losses can exceed normal stop losses by 5-10x due to slippage:

Never hold a position into a major release
Don't place stop losses within 20 pips of current price before NFP/FOMC
Use guaranteed stop losses if your broker offers them
Wait for the first 5-minute candle to close before entering
Reduce position size to 25-50% of normal during news

The Interconnection Web

Economic events don't exist in isolation. They form a chain:

Employment
(NFP, ADP)

→

Wages
(AHE)

→

Spending
(Retail Sales)

→

Inflation
(CPI, PCE)

→

Rate Decision
(FOMC, ECB)

→

Currency
Value

A strong NFP today means higher inflation in 3-6 months, which means rate hikes 6-12 months from now. Trade the expectation, not the confirmation. The market prices in the chain reaction before it happens.

EA Automation for News

Automated strategies need explicit news handling. The advanced news management system in our MQL5 guide covers:

WebRequest to fetch live calendar data
XML parsing and ET→GMT timezone conversion
Risk-scored graduated position sizing
Binary search O(log n) filter for 20+ pairs
Advanced version →

Economic Event Encyclopedia

Deep reference for every major economic event type — what moves, why it matters, and how to trade it

Inflation

Central bank's primary focus. Inflation drives interest rate decisions.

What It Measures

CPI measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services over time. It is the most widely used gauge of inflation and directly influences central bank monetary policy decisions.

Why It Matters to Forex

Inflation is the #1 driver of currency value. Central banks raise interest rates to fight high inflation (attracting foreign capital and strengthening the currency) and cut rates during low inflation (weakening the currency). CPI surprises are among the most market-moving events alongside NFP and central bank decisions.

Bullish Scenario

A higher-than-expected CPI print signals rising inflation pressure. This forces the central bank to maintain or accelerate interest rate hikes, making the currency more attractive to yield-seeking investors. The currency rallies as rate hike expectations are priced in.

Bearish Scenario

A lower-than-expected CPI print signals cooling inflation or deflation risk. Markets price in rate cuts or a pause in the tightening cycle. The currency sells off as yield expectations drop.

Typical Pip Movement: High impact: 30-80 pips (major pairs) • Medium impact: 15-40 pips (cross pairs) • Minor pairs: 10-25 pips

Affected Pairs: Event country + all major pairs containing that currency. USD-CPI moves EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, USDCHF. AUD-CPI moves AUDUSD, EURAUD, GBPAUD, AUDJPY.

Intermarket Connections

PPI (Producer Price Index) leads CPI by 2-3 months — rising PPI eventually passes through to consumers.
CPI directly influences Interest Rate Decisions at the next central bank meeting.
Retail Sales data shows whether consumers can sustain spending under inflation pressure.
Employment data affects wage-driven inflation — rising wages feed into services CPI.
Import Prices affect CPI — a weak currency makes imports expensive, pushing CPI up.

Historical Context

Central banks target 2% inflation (PCE in the US, CPI in most others). CPI above 5% triggers aggressive tightening. CPI below 1% risks deflation and forces emergency easing. The 2021-2023 inflation spike saw CPI peak at 9.1% in the US, triggering the fastest rate hiking cycle in 40 years.

What It Measures

Core CPI removes volatile food and energy prices to reveal the underlying inflation trend. Central banks focus on core CPI as a more reliable indicator of persistent inflation.

Why It Matters to Forex

Food and energy prices fluctuate wildly due to weather, geopolitics, and seasonal factors. Core CPI strips this noise away and shows the true inflation trajectory. A high core CPI reading forces central bank action regardless of what headline CPI says.

Bullish Scenario

Core CPI rising => persistent inflation => central bank must keep rates high => currency strengthens.

Bearish Scenario

Core CPI falling => inflation under control => central bank can cut rates => currency weakens.

Typical Pip Movement: High impact: 25-60 pips

Affected Pairs: Same as CPI — affects all pairs with the reporting currency.

Intermarket Connections

Core CPI is the Federal Reserve preferred measure (PCE is their official target, but CPI trends correlate).
Services inflation (a component of Core CPI) is the stickiest and most watched by central banks.
Rent and shelter costs (30% of CPI) lag house prices by 12-18 months.

What It Measures

The PCE Price Index measures inflation across a broader range of goods and services than CPI. It is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge and the primary metric for monetary policy decisions.

Why It Matters to Forex

The Fed officially targets 2% PCE inflation. Unlike CPI which measures out-of-pocket costs, PCE captures what people actually consume (including employer-paid healthcare and government programs). The Fed sets interest rates based on PCE, making it arguably more important than CPI for USD pairs.

Bullish Scenario

PCE rising above 2% target => Fed hawkish => USD strengthens across all pairs.

Bearish Scenario

PCE falling below 2% or trending down => Fed dovish or cutting rates => USD weakens.

Typical Pip Movement: High impact: 20-50 pips (major USD pairs)

Affected Pairs: All USD pairs: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, USDCHF, and crosses.

Intermarket Connections

Core PCE (ex food & energy) is what the Fed targets — always watch Core PCE more than headline.
PCE typically runs 0.3-0.5% below CPI due to different methodology (substitution effect, broader basket).
Personal Income and Personal Spending are released alongside PCE — the trio together tells the full consumption story.
Employment feeds into PCE via wage growth — more wages = more spending = higher PCE.

What It Measures

PPI measures the average change in prices received by domestic producers for their output. It captures inflation at the wholesale level before goods reach consumers.

Why It Matters to Forex

PPI is a leading indicator for CPI. When producers pay more for raw materials and energy, they eventually pass these costs to consumers. Rising PPI today means higher CPI 2-3 months from now. Forex markets watch PPI to forecast future CPI surprises.

Bullish Scenario

PPI rising => future CPI expected to rise => rate hike expectations increase => currency strengthens.

Bearish Scenario

PPI falling => future CPI expected to fall => rate cut expectations increase => currency weakens.

Typical Pip Movement: High impact: 15-40 pips

Affected Pairs: Currency of the reporting economy, strongest on pairs with that currency.

Intermarket Connections

PPI leads CPI by 2-3 months — a sustained PPI rise almost always shows up in CPI later.
Energy prices heavily influence PPI — oil shocks show up in PPI immediately.
Core PPI (ex food & energy) is more reliable for forecasting Core CPI.
Import Prices are related to PPI — a weak currency makes imported inputs expensive, raising PPI.

Employment

Labor market health determines consumer spending and economic momentum.

What It Measures

NFP measures the change in the number of employed people in the US, excluding the farming sector, government employees, and non-profit organizations. It is released on the first Friday of every month at 8:30 AM ET.

Why It Matters to Forex

NFP is THE single most market-moving economic event in forex. It provides the clearest snapshot of US labor market health, which directly drives Fed policy. Traders call NFP Friday "the most important trading day of the month" because volatility routinely hits 50-100+ pips within seconds of the release.

Bullish Scenario

NFP above 200K + prior month revisions UP + unemployment falling => economy strong => Fed hikes or holds rates => USD surges across all pairs.

Bearish Scenario

NFP below 100K + prior month revisions DOWN + unemployment rising => economy slowing => Fed cuts rates => USD sells off sharply.

Typical Pip Movement: Major pairs on release: 50-120 pips in the first 15 minutes • Daily range: 100-200+ pips for EURUSD • Continuation: Trend often continues for 3-5 days

Affected Pairs: ALL USD pairs. EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY move most. Gold (XAUUSD) is also heavily affected. USD crosses across the board.

Intermarket Connections

Average Hourly Earnings (AHE) released with NFP shows wage inflation — the most watched sub-component. Rising wages force the Fed to keep rates high even if NFP is only moderate.
Unemployment Rate released simultaneously — a falling unemployment rate with strong NFP is the most bullish combination.
Previous months NFP revisions can be as important as the current print — large upward revisions signal sustained strength.
NFP strength feeds into Retail Sales (more jobs = more spending) and CPI (wage inflation).
The FOMC explicitly cites NFP data in their rate decisions — a string of 200K+ NFPs almost guarantees no rate cuts.

Historical Context

NFP ranges historically: recession (negative to 100K), normal expansion (150-250K), strong recovery (300-500K). The 2021 recovery saw prints of 500K-1M as the economy reopened post-COVID. NFP is not seasonally adjusted perfectly — January and July often have quirky prints due to holiday hiring and school-year effects.

Trading Strategy

Most professional traders wait 15-30 minutes after the release for the initial spike and retracement before entering. The first 5 seconds belong to the algorithms. Look for the "NFP reversal pattern" where price spikes one direction then reverses within 30 minutes.

What It Measures

The national equivalent of NFP for countries other than the US. Measures monthly change in employed persons. Most closely watched for AUD (Australia), NZD (New Zealand), and CAD (Canada).

Why It Matters to Forex

Employment data is the second most important economic indicator for most countries, behind only CPI. Central banks prioritize the labor market — full employment is half of their dual mandate (alongside price stability).

Bullish Scenario

Employment rising strongly + participation rate steady => economy at full capacity => currency strengthens on rate hike expectations.

Bearish Scenario

Employment falling or missing expectations significantly => economy weakening => currency sells off on rate cut expectations.

Typical Pip Movement: High impact: 20-60 pips for AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USDCAD

Affected Pairs: Reporting country currency: AUD Employment moves AUDUSD, EURAUD, GBPAUD. CAD Employment moves USDCAD, EURCAD, CADJPY.

Intermarket Connections

Employment Change is released alongside Unemployment Rate — the combination paints the full picture.
Part-time vs Full-time breakdown matters — full-time jobs growth is more bullish than part-time.
Participation Rate shows whether people are actively looking — falling participation can mask a weak labor market.
Employment feeds Consumer Spending which drives Retail Sales and GDP.

What It Measures

The percentage of the total labor force that is unemployed but actively seeking employment. Released monthly alongside Employment Change or NFP.

Why It Matters to Forex

The unemployment rate is the most intuitive economic health metric. Central banks have explicit targets — the Fed considers 4.1% or below as "maximum employment." A rising unemployment rate forces rate cuts regardless of what inflation is doing.

Bullish Scenario

Unemployment falling or steady near lows => labor market tight => wage pressure => rate hikes hold => currency strong.

Bearish Scenario

Unemployment rising sharply (0.2%+ in one month) => recession warning => rate cuts expected => currency weakens.

Typical Pip Movement: When released with employment: 10-30 pips additional move beyond the headline print

Affected Pairs: Same as Employment Change/NFP for the reporting country.

Intermarket Connections

The Unemployment Rate is a lagging indicator — it peaks after recessions have already started and bottoms after recoveries are well underway.
Wage growth (Average Hourly Earnings) is directly linked to unemployment — the Phillips Curve shows low unemployment drives wage inflation.
U-6 Unemployment (includes discouraged workers and part-time for economic reasons) is the broader measure the Fed watches behind the scenes.
A falling unemployment rate combined with rising labor force participation is the most healthy labor market signal.

What It Measures

Initial Claims measures the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time in a week. Continuing Claims measures people still receiving benefits. Released every Thursday at 8:30 AM ET (US).

Why It Matters to Forex

This is the HIGHEST FREQUENCY employment indicator — weekly, not monthly. It provides the earliest warning of labor market deterioration. Spikes in claims (300K+) have historically preceded recessions. Markets react because it is timelier than NFP by 3-4 weeks.

Bullish Scenario

Claims below 200K (Initial) => layoffs minimal => labor market tight => USD positive.

Bearish Scenario

Claims above 250K and trending up => layoffs accelerating => recession warning => USD negative. Claims above 300K is a red alert.

Typical Pip Movement: Normal: 5-15 pips • During crisis: 20-50 pips if claims spike dramatically

Affected Pairs: USD pairs primarily. Also affects market sentiment broadly — risk-on/risk-off shifts.

Intermarket Connections

Initial Claims lead the Unemployment Rate by 2-3 months.
Continuing Claims show how easy it is for unemployed workers to find new jobs — rising continuing claims means jobs are hard to find.
Claims below 200K correlate with tight labor markets where employers are reluctant to fire.
Claims above 350K for 4+ consecutive weeks is the historical recession signal used by economists.

Central Bank

Monetary policy decisions directly set the price of money.

What It Measures

The central bank announces its benchmark interest rate. This is the most important monetary policy event for any currency. Decisions are typically pre-scheduled 6-8 times per year per central bank.

Why It Matters to Forex

Interest rates are the price of money. Higher rates attract foreign capital inflows (yield-seeking investors), strengthening the currency. Lower rates weaken it. Rate decisions move markets more than any economic data print because they set the entire yield curve.

Bullish Scenario

Rate HIKE larger than expected (50bp vs 25bp) => very bullish. Rate held but hawkish statement (mentioning inflation risks, future hikes) => moderately bullish.

Bearish Scenario

Rate CUT larger than expected => very bearish. Rate held but dovish statement (mentioning risks to growth, future cuts) => moderately bearish.

Typical Pip Movement: Surprise hike: 100-300+ pips over 24 hours • Expected move: 30-80 pips • Follow through: Trend establishes over 1-3 weeks

Affected Pairs: ALL pairs containing that currency. Fed rate decision moves every major pair. ECB decision moves all EUR pairs. BOE moves all GBP pairs.

Intermarket Connections

The RATE DECISION itself is binary, but the STATEMENT and PRESS CONFERENCE carry 80% of the market impact.
Forward guidance (dot plot, rate path projections) shapes expectations for the next 6-12 months.
Rate differentials between countries drive carry trade — a higher rate currency appreciates against a lower rate currency over time.
Central bank credibility matters — if markets don't believe the forward guidance, the actual decision produces less impact.
The decision is always preceded by a "blackout period" where no central bank officials speak for 1-2 weeks.

Historical Context

The 2022-2023 tightening cycle saw the Fed raise rates from 0.25% to 5.50% — the fastest hiking cycle since the 1980s. Each 25bp hike moved EURUSD approximately 50-100 pips. Rate decisions during crises (2008, 2020) saw emergency cuts of 50-100bp that moved markets 300+ pips.

Trading Strategy

Never trade into a rate decision with a position on — the spike can stop you out immediately. Wait for the initial 5-minute volatility to settle, then trade the follow-through in the direction of the new policy bias.

What It Measures

Governors, FOMC members, MPC members, or Board Governors give public speeches on the economy and monetary policy outlook. These are unscheduled and can happen anytime.

Why It Matters to Forex

Speeches give clues about the next rate decision before the official meeting. A hawkish comment from a typically dovish member is more impactful than a hawkish comment from a known hawk. Markets parse every word for shifts in tone.

Bullish Scenario

Comments about "inflation persistence", "need for further tightening", "economy running hot" => hawkish => currency strengthens.

Bearish Scenario

Comments about "risks to growth", "data dependency", "patience" => dovish => currency weakens. "We are close to the peak" is strongly dovish.

Typical Pip Movement: Dovish hawkish shift: 20-60 pips • Major shift: 50-100 pips

Affected Pairs: USD speeches move all USD pairs. EUR speeches move EUR pairs. GBP speeches move GBP pairs. Cross-country impact: Fed speeches affect global risk sentiment.

Intermarket Connections

The FOMC voting member status matters — voters for the current year have more impact on market expectations.
Chairs/Presidents (Powell, Lagarde, Bailey) have the most impact — their words carry the full weight of the institution.
Hawk/Dove rankings are published by banks — a shift in a member's ranking is more important than the absolute content.

What It Measures

ECB President Christine Lagarde delivers remarks on monetary policy, economic outlook, and inflation at public events, press conferences, or parliamentary hearings.

Why It Matters to Forex

As head of the ECB, Lagarde's words directly set expectations for EUR monetary policy. Every phrase is analyzed for hawkish/dovish bias. The ECB has a single mandate (price stability) unlike the Fed's dual mandate, making inflation comments particularly impactful.

Bullish Scenario

Hawkish comments about inflation persistence, wage pressures, or the need for further tightening. Explicit mention of specific rate actions.

Bearish Scenario

Dovish comments about growth risks, weak lending, or disinflation progress. Avoidance of specific forward guidance.

Typical Pip Movement: Significant: 20-60 pips EURUSD

Affected Pairs: All EUR pairs: EURUSD, EURGBP, EURJPY, EURCHF, EURAUD, EURNZD, EURCAD.

Intermarket Connections

ECB Governing Council members' speeches in aggregate set expectations — Lagarde sets the tone, but other members provide the range of views.
ECB Forward Guidance is less time-bound than the Fed's — Lagarde's language about "data dependency" vs "determination" matters.
ECB rate decisions affect European bank profitability, sovereign bond spreads (Italy vs Germany), and EUR exchange rates simultaneously.

What It Measures

Detailed record of the Federal Reserve's most recent policy meeting, released 3 weeks after the decision. Shows the full discussion, dissenting votes, and internal debates.

Why It Matters to Forex

Minutes reveal the depth of consensus behind a decision. A unanimous decision is strong. A divided committee (dissenting votes) suggests the next meeting could bring change. Markets scan for the phrase "some participants noted" — this signals emerging views.

Bullish Scenario

Widespread concern about inflation persistence, talk of "faster pace" of hikes, multiple members favoring higher rates.

Bearish Scenario

Growing concern about growth risks, discussion of "appropriate timing for cuts", "many participants noted uncertainty".

Typical Pip Movement: Normal: 15-40 pips • Significant revelation: 30-60 pips

Affected Pairs: All USD pairs.

Intermarket Connections

Minutes are always 3 weeks old — markets compare the tone against current conditions to assess if the Fed is behind or ahead of the curve.
The "staff economic outlook" section is the most forward-looking part — it shows what the Fed's internal model predicts.
The "balance sheet" discussion section gives clues about QT (quantitative tightening) trajectory.

GDP

Broadest measure of economic health and output.

What It Measures

GDP measures the total value of all goods and services produced in a country over a specific period. It is the broadest measure of economic health and is released quarterly (advance, preliminary, and final estimates).

Why It Matters to Forex

GDP is the report card for the entire economy. Strong GDP growth supports currency appreciation through higher interest rates, increased corporate profits, and foreign investment inflows. Recessions (two consecutive quarters of negative GDP) trigger massive currency selloffs.

Bullish Scenario

GDP above 3% annualized (US) => economy expanding rapidly => rate hikes likely => currency strengthens broadly.

Bearish Scenario

GDP below 1% or negative => recession risk => rate cuts needed => currency weakens across all pairs.

Typical Pip Movement: Major surprise: 40-100 pips • Revision: 10-30 pips

Affected Pairs: All pairs containing the reporting currency. US GDP affects every major pair.

Intermarket Connections

GDP is the SUM of: Consumption + Investment + Government Spending + (Exports - Imports).
Personal Consumption is 68% of US GDP — Retail Sales data predicts the consumption component.
Two consecutive negative GDP quarters = recession (by common definition, though NBER officially calls recessions).
GDP revisions (from Advance to Preliminary to Final) can be as large as 1-2% — the revision is sometimes more impactful than the initial print.
GDP Price Index (the deflator) is a broad inflation measure released with GDP — it gives the inflation context for the growth number.
GDP vs GNP: GDP measures domestic production; GNP measures what citizens own globally. The difference shows how much foreign income flows out of the country.

PMI / Business Surveys

Most timely economic indicators — released before other monthly data.

What It Measures

PMI surveys purchasing managers at hundreds of companies across manufacturing and services sectors. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 indicates contraction. It is the most timely economic indicator — released on the first business day of each month.

Why It Matters to Forex

PMI is the EARLIEST monthly economic indicator — it comes out before retail sales, employment, or GDP data for the same period. A PMI above 50 signals expansion and supports the currency. A PMI below 50 signals contraction and weakens it. The services PMI is now more important than manufacturing for most developed economies.

Bullish Scenario

PMI rising above 50 and beating expectations => broad economic expansion => currency strengthens.

Bearish Scenario

PMI falling below 50 (contraction) or significantly missing expectations => recession signal => currency weakens.

Typical Pip Movement: Flash release: 15-35 pips • Final revision: 5-15 pips

Affected Pairs: Reporting country currency. Flash Manufacturing/Services PMIs from Germany, France, EU, UK, and US all affect their respective pairs.

Intermarket Connections

Manufacturing PMI components: New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories. New Orders is the most forward-looking.
Services PMI is more important than Manufacturing for the US and UK (services are 75-80% of their economies).
Composite PMI combines Manufacturing and Services into one number — the best overall snapshot.
Flash PMI (preliminary, ~25th of month) is more impactful than Final PMI because it is the first read.
Supplier Delivery Times component of Manufacturing PMI can indicate supply chain pressure — longer delivery times suggest demand outstrips supply.
PMI Employment sub-index correlates with NFP/employment data release 1-2 weeks later.

Consumption / Trade

Consumer spending drives 68% of GDP. Trade balance shows international flows.

What It Measures

Measures the total receipts of retail stores on a monthly basis. It is the primary gauge of consumer spending, which drives 68% of US GDP and similar percentages in other developed economies.

Why It Matters to Forex

Consumer spending is the engine of the economy. Strong retail sales mean consumers are confident and spending freely — this drives GDP growth, corporate profits, and eventually inflation. Weak retail sales signal consumer stress and economic slowdown.

Bullish Scenario

Retail Sales m/m above 0.5% + upward revisions => consumers spending strongly => GDP growth assured => currency strengthens.

Bearish Scenario

Retail Sales negative or below 0.1% + downward revisions => consumers pulling back => recession warning => currency weakens.

Typical Pip Movement: Major surprise: 20-50 pips • Expected range: 10-25 pips

Affected Pairs: Reporting country currency. US Retail Sales most impactful — moves all USD pairs.

Intermarket Connections

Core Retail Sales (ex Autos) removes the most volatile component — gas station sales also distort the headline.
Control Group Retail Sales (ex autos, gas, building materials) feeds directly into GDP consumption component.
Online/Non-store Retail Sales is the fastest-growing sub-component — shows e-commerce trend.
Retail Sales correlates with Employment — more jobs = more income = more spending.
Holiday shopping season (Nov-Dec) data is always seasonally elevated — compare against previous years' same months.

What It Measures

The difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. A positive balance (surplus) means the country exports more than it imports. A negative balance (deficit) means it imports more than it exports.

Why It Matters to Forex

Trade balance directly impacts GDP (exports add, imports subtract). A country with a persistent trade surplus tends to have a stronger currency because foreign buyers must purchase the domestic currency to pay for exports. A deficit can weaken the currency over time as domestic currency flows abroad.

Bullish Scenario

Narrowing deficit or widening surplus => exports growing faster than imports => currency demand increases => domestic currency strengthens.

Bearish Scenario

Widening deficit or narrowing surplus => imports outpacing exports => currency flows abroad => domestic currency weakens.

Typical Pip Movement: Moderate: 10-25 pips • Extreme: 20-40 pips

Affected Pairs: Reporting country currency. Most impactful for USD, CNY (via AUD/NZD), JPY, and EUR.

Intermarket Connections

Trade balance is heavily influenced by the TERMS OF TRADE — export prices vs import prices.
A WEAKER CURRENCY eventually IMPROVES trade balance (makes exports cheaper, imports more expensive) — this is called the J-Curve effect.
Oil-exporting countries (CAD, NOK) see their trade balance swing wildly with oil prices.
Manufacturing PMI New Orders sub-index predicts future export performance.
The US runs a structural trade deficit (imports exceed exports) — this is funded by foreign purchases of US Treasuries.

Housing

Most interest-rate-sensitive sector — leading indicator for the economy.

What It Measures

Building Permits (future construction approvals), Housing Starts (new construction begun), and New Home Sales (newly built homes sold). Together they measure the health of the housing sector, which is a leading economic indicator.

Why It Matters to Forex

Housing is the most interest-rate-sensitive sector of the economy. When rates rise, housing immediately slows. When rates fall, housing recovers first. Housing data gives the earliest signal about whether monetary policy is working. Strength in housing ripples through construction jobs, home furnishings, and consumer confidence.

Bullish Scenario

Housing Starts rising + Building Permits rising => construction sector expanding => economic momentum building => currency positive.

Bearish Scenario

Housing Starts falling + Building Permits falling => rate hikes biting => economic slowdown ahead => currency negative.

Typical Pip Movement: Moderate: 10-25 pips

Affected Pairs: Reporting country currency. US housing data moves USD pairs moderately.

Intermarket Connections

Building Permits lead Housing Starts by 1-2 months — permits are the forward-looking indicator.
Housing starts affect: employment (construction jobs), retail sales (furniture, appliances), and CPI (rents).
Mortgage Rates directly correlate with housing activity — the housing market is the fastest channel of monetary policy transmission.
Existing Home Sales (transactions of existing homes, not new builds) are a separate but related release — existing home sales are more about consumer mobility and Realtor commissions.
NAHB Housing Market Index is a sentiment survey of homebuilders — it leads Starts by 2-3 months.

Confidence / Surveys

Leading sentiment indicators that predict future economic activity.

What It Measures

Monthly surveys of consumer attitudes about current and future economic conditions. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (US) and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (US) are the most widely followed. Similar surveys exist for most developed economies.

Why It Matters to Forex

Consumer confidence is a LEADING indicator — confident consumers spend more, drive GDP, and support inflation. Plunging confidence signals a recession 6-12 months in advance. The "Expectations" sub-index (future outlook) is the most predictive component.

Bullish Scenario

Confidence rising sharply + Expectations sub-index above 80 => consumers optimistic about future => spending will follow => currency strengthens.

Bearish Scenario

Confidence falling sharply + Expectations sub-index below 60 => consumers pessimistic => spending pullback ahead => currency weakens.

Typical Pip Movement: Major surprise: 15-35 pips

Affected Pairs: Reporting country currency. US confidence measures affect all USD pairs.

Intermarket Connections

The Expectations sub-index is more important than Current Conditions — it predicts future spending.
Consumer Confidence (Conference Board) focuses on labor market perceptions — "Jobs Hard to Get" is the key sub-index.
UoM Consumer Sentiment includes Inflation Expectations — the most important component for the Fed.
Consumer confidence tends to rise with stock markets (wealth effect) and fall with gas prices.
Ifo Business Climate (Germany) is the manufacturing equivalent — business leaders' expectations predict production.

Production / Output

Measures industrial activity and business investment.

What It Measures

Measures the real output of manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors. Capacity Utilization measures how much of the nation's productive capacity is being used. Both released monthly.

Why It Matters to Forex

Industrial Production shows whether the goods-producing side of the economy is expanding or contracting. Capacity Utilization above 80% signals potential bottlenecks and inflation pressure — the Fed watches this for overheating signs.

Bullish Scenario

IP rising + Capacity Utilization approaching 80% => manufacturing expanding => potential inflation pressure => rate hike expectations increase => currency strengthens.

Bearish Scenario

IP falling + CU declining => manufacturing recession => economic weakness => rate cuts expected => currency weakens.

Typical Pip Movement: Moderate: 10-20 pips

Affected Pairs: Reporting country currency.

Intermarket Connections

Capacity Utilization above 82% historically correlates with rising inflation (the "Phillips Curve" for production).
Industrial Production feeds into GDP directly — it measures the goods-producing part of the economy.
Manufacturing PMI New Orders sub-index predicts IP 2-3 months ahead.
Utility output (part of IP) is weather-dependent — summer heat waves and winter cold snaps distort monthly readings.

What It Measures

Measures new orders placed with manufacturers for delivery of factory goods that last 3+ years (machinery, computers, transportation equipment, aircraft). It is a leading indicator of manufacturing activity.

Why It Matters to Forex

Durable goods orders are VOLATILE but HIGHLY FORWARD-LOOKING. A surge in orders means factories will be busy for months, boosting employment and GDP. The "Core" reading (ex transportation, ex defense) is more stable and more closely watched.

Bullish Scenario

Core Durable Goods Orders rising => business investment expanding => future production secured => currency strengthens.

Bearish Scenario

Core Durable Goods Orders falling => business investment contracting => future production at risk => currency weakens.

Typical Pip Movement: Core surprise: 15-35 pips • Headline only: 5-15 pips (headline is too volatile)

Affected Pairs: USD pairs primarily. Also affects stock market sentiment.

Intermarket Connections

Core Capital Goods Orders (non-defense, ex-aircraft) = "Core of the Core" — the purest measure of business investment.
Durable Goods orders lead Industrial Production by 3-6 months.
Aircraft orders (Boeing) can swing headline durable goods by 10-20% in a single month — always watch Core ex-transportation.
Business investment directly correlates with business confidence surveys.

Commodities / Energy

Energy prices flow through to inflation, trade balance, and specific currencies.

What It Measures

Weekly report (DOE/EIA) measuring the change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US firms. Released every Wednesday at 10:30 AM ET.

Why It Matters to Forex

Oil inventories directly affect oil prices, which flow through to inflation (gasoline prices), trade balance (oil import costs), and CAD/NOK (oil-exporting currencies). A large draw (inventory decline) signals strong demand or supply disruption, pushing oil prices up.

Bullish Scenario

Large draw (decline) in inventories + gasoline inventories also drawing => strong demand => oil prices rise => CAD, NOK strengthen. USD weakens (higher oil prices hurt US consumers).

Bearish Scenario

Large build (increase) in inventories => oversupply => oil prices fall => CAD, NOK weaken => importers (USD, JPY) benefit.

Typical Pip Movement: Major surprise: 15-30 pips (USDCAD) • Cross impact: 10-20 pips (CADJPY, EURCAD)

Affected Pairs: USDCAD most strongly. Also affects NOK pairs, USDJPY, and risk sentiment broadly.

Intermarket Connections

API Weekly Statistical Bulletin (Tuesday) provides a preview of Wednesday's official EIA report.
Cushing, OK storage hub level is the key inventory indicator — Cushing is the delivery point for NYMEX crude futures.
Gasoline inventories affect consumer spending — higher gas prices reduce discretionary spending.
Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) releases can distort inventory data — adjust for SPR changes when analyzing.

Debt / Bond Markets

Government borrowing costs signal fiscal confidence.

What It Measures

The sale of government debt (2-yr, 5-yr, 7-yr, 10-yr, 30-yr bonds) to investors. Results include the yield, bid-to-cover ratio (demand), and indirect bidder participation (foreign central banks).

Why It Matters to Forex

Bond auctions reveal the market's appetite for a country's debt. Strong demand (high bid-to-cover) means investors trust the country's fiscal outlook. Weak demand forces yields higher, which can destabilize markets. Foreign central bank participation (indirect bids) shows whether other countries are buying the currency.

Bullish Scenario

High bid-to-cover (above 2.5x) + yields stable or falling => strong demand => vote of confidence in fiscal policy => currency strengthens.

Bearish Scenario

Low bid-to-cover (below 2.0x) + yields spiking => weak demand => investors demanding higher risk premium => currency weakens.

Typical Pip Movement: Moderate: 10-20 pips • Failed auction: 30-60 pips (rare)

Affected Pairs: Bond auctions affect the issuing country's currency and global risk sentiment. US Treasury auctions affect all pairs.

Intermarket Connections

Indirect bidders = foreign central banks. Declining participation means foreign governments are reducing their holdings of that country's debt.
The yield relative to the "when-issued" pre-auction trading is the first measure of success.
Tail = difference between average yield and highest accepted yield. A large tail signals weak demand.
Bond yields and currency values have a complex relationship — higher yields normally attract capital and strengthen the currency (until yields rise because of default risk).

Political / Geopolitical

Political events can override economic fundamentals instantly.

What It Measures

Remarks by the US President on economic policy, trade, tariffs, or geopolitical issues.

Why It Matters to Forex

Presidential remarks on trade policy, tariffs, or currency manipulation can move markets instantly. Unexpected announcements about trade wars, new tariffs, or international conflicts create sharp FX moves. Market impact depends on the topic — trade policy comments matter most.

Bullish Scenario

Pro-business, pro-deregulation, tax cut comments. Trade deal optimism. Strong economy remarks without tariff threats.

Bearish Scenario

New tariff announcements, trade war escalation, criticism of the Fed or currency policy, government shutdown threats.

Typical Pip Movement: Tariff announcement: 50-150 pips • General remarks: 15-40 pips

Affected Pairs: All USD pairs. Trade war comments particularly affect USDCNY, USDMXN, AUDUSD (China proxy), and USDJPY (safe haven).

Intermarket Connections

Tariff announcements affect specific currency pairs through trade channel — China tariffs shock AUD, NZD, and emerging markets.
Presidential criticism of Fed policy historically weakens USD (rare but impactful when it happens).
Government shutdown threats affect USD negatively through uncertainty channel.
Trade deal optimism strengthens USD and risk currencies; trade war escalation strengthens safe havens (JPY, CHF).